Why Is Mondelez (MDLZ) Down 1.2% Since Last Earnings Report?

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Mondelez (MDLZ). Shares have lost about 1.2% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Mondelez due for a breakout? Well, first let's take a quick look at its latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent catalysts for Mondelez International, Inc. before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.

Mondelez's Q4 Earnings Top Estimates Despite Cocoa Cost Headwinds

Mondelez International posted fourth-quarter 2025 results, wherein revenues and adjusted earnings per share increased and surpassed the respective Zacks Consensus Estimate. Adjusted earnings were 72 cents per share, which increased 4.6% on a constant-currency (cc) basis and beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 70 cents. The improvement reflected favorable pricing and cost discipline, partially offset by higher input costs.

Net revenues rose 9.3% year over year to $10.5 billion, outpacing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $10.3 billion. The increase in the top line was driven by organic net revenue growth, positive foreign-currency impacts and revenue contributions from the Evirth acquisition.

Organic net revenues grew 5.1% year over year in the fourth quarter. This growth was primarily fueled by pricing, which contributed 9.9 percentage points (pp), while volume/mix declined 4.8 pp due to continued elasticity and affordability pressures.

Revenues from emerging markets increased 13.2% year over year to $4.1 billion, with organic growth of 8%. Growth in these markets was supported by strong pricing execution across Latin America and AMEA, partially offset by volume softness in select geographies. Revenues from developed markets increased 6.9% year over year to $6.4 billion, with organic growth of 3.4%. While pricing actions supported growth, volume/mix declines, particularly in North America, continued to weigh on results.

Region-wise, revenues jumped 17.3% in Europe and 8.9% in Asia, the Middle East and Africa, and 7.9% in Latin America. North America remained under pressure, with revenues declining 0.6% year over year. On an organic basis, revenues rose 8.3% in Europe and 7.5% in AMEA, increased 4.4% in Latin America and fell 0.5% in North America.

Adjusted gross profit increased modestly at cc, while the Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) company’s adjusted gross margin declined 100 basis points to 30.5%. The drop was primarily caused by elevated raw material costs, particularly cocoa, and an adverse product mix, partially offset by increased pricing and manufacturing cost efficiencies fueled by productivity initiatives.

Adjusted operating income surged 22.1% at cc, while the adjusted operating income margin improved 190 basis points to 11.9%. The increase was primarily backed by elevated net pricing, reduced advertising and consumer promotion costs, reduced overhead expenses and productivity gains, partially offset by an adverse product mix and continued input cost inflation.

Mondelez’s Financial Health Snapshot

MDLZ ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $2.1 billion and total debt of $21.2 billion. For full-year 2025, the company generated $4.5 billion in net cash from operating activities and delivered free cash flow of $3.2 billion.
Mondelez returned $4.9 billion to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks during 2025, underscoring its commitment to disciplined capital allocation.

What to Expect From MDLZ in 2026?

Mondelez’s outlook for 2026 reflects a cautious stance amid heightened macroeconomic, geopolitical and commodity-related uncertainty. 
MDLZ expects organic net revenue growth to range between flat and 2%. Adjusted earnings per share are projected to grow between flat and 5% on a constant-currency basis. Free cash flow is expected to be approximately $3 billion. The company anticipates currency translation to boost 2026 net revenue growth by about 2% and lift adjusted EPS by roughly 6 cents.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates review.

The consensus estimate has shifted -15.36% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Mondelez has a average Growth Score of C, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a score of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for value investors.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Mondelez has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

Mondelez is part of the Zacks Food - Miscellaneous industry. Over the past month, Sysco (SYY), a stock from the same industry, has gained 3.5%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended December 2025 more than a month ago.

Sysco reported revenues of $20.76 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +3%. EPS of $0.99 for the same period compares with $0.93 a year ago.

For the current quarter, Sysco is expected to post earnings of $0.95 per share, indicating a change of -1% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate remained unchanged over the last 30 days.

The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Sysco. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of C.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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