DICK'S Q4 Earnings on the Cards: Is It Poised to Beat Expectations?

As DICK’S Sporting Goods Inc. DKS prepares to announce its fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings on March 12, investors are closely watching for insights into its performance this season.

DKS is expected to register a year-over-year sales increase in the quarter under review. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $6.1 billion, indicating a rise of 56.7% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

The consensus estimate for earnings is pegged at $3.43 per share, which indicates a dip of 5.3% from the year-ago reported number. The consensus mark has been unchanged in the past 30 days. 

For fiscal 2025, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $17.1 billion, indicating a rise of 27% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. The consensus estimate for earnings is pegged at $13.29 per share, which indicates a decline of 5.4% from the year-ago reported number. The consensus mark has moved up 0.3% in the past 30 days. 

The company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 3%, on average.

Factors to Note About DKS Q4 Release

DICK’S quarterly performance is likely to have reflected gains from solid strategic efforts, brand strength and market share gains. Management highlighted broad-based strength across footwear, apparel, team sports and golf heading into the back half, with no signs of consumer slowdown. The company’s fiscal fourth-quarter momentum is expected to be driven by a healthy mix of both average ticket growth and higher transactions.

Margin trends in the fiscal fourth quarter are expected to have been supported by pricing discipline, differentiated product access and the continued strength of high-margin vertical brands like DSG, CALIA and VRST, which management noted carry 700-900 basis points (bps) higher margins than national brands. These factors position DICK’S to sustain healthy merchandise profitability in the fourth quarter, even as it navigates a complex macro backdrop. 

DICK’S fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results are expected to have benefited from the continued strength of its digital ecosystem. The company’s multibillion-dollar, profitable e-commerce business is a key growth driver, growing faster than its overall business. The company is on track to build strength and differentiation in e-commerce by leaning into app experience, including app-exclusive reservations, making the company a leader in launch culture in its key categories. The company is harnessing the power of athlete data and remains enthusiastic about its long-term growth opportunities in GameChanger and the DICK'S Media Network.

On the last reported quarter’s earnings call, management projected net sales of $13.95-$14 billion for fiscal 2025. The company expects comps growth of 3.5-4% in fiscal 2025. DKS envisions earnings per share of $14.25-$14.55. Management anticipates gross margin expansion for the full year. Operating margin is expected to be around 11.1%, with a potential 10 bps of expansion at the high end.

We expect adjusted gross profit to expand 47% for the fourth quarter and 22.2% for fiscal 2025. 

DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. price-eps-surprise | DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. Quote

However, DICK’S has been witnessing an uncertain macroeconomic environment and trade-related risks that could weigh on profitability. Tariff-related cost pressures, especially on imported footwear and athletic apparel, increase the company’s input costs, potentially compressing margins if price increases are constrained by consumer sensitivity. Broader economic uncertainty, ranging from slowing consumer discretionary spending to inflationary pressures, adds further complexity to forecasting demand. While the company has delivered resilient sales so far, management’s guidance reflects the unpredictable nature of these headwinds.

The company’s guidance includes the anticipated impact of all tariffs presently in effect. Even with strong execution and strategic investments, external factors, such as supply-chain disruptions, geopolitical tensions or shifts in consumer sentiment, could curtail growth or erode margins. Although the recent acquisition brought added costs and some near-term pressure, the core business continued to demonstrate resilience, benefiting from disciplined execution, effective merchandising and operational efficiencies. Seasonal trends, tariff costs and the impact of heavy capital expenditures might weigh on profitability in the near term.

DICK’S margins have been witnessing headwinds as it ramps up spending across digital initiatives, store enhancements, and marketing programs. These are expected to have led to higher SG&A expenses in the to-be-reported quarter. On the last reported quarter’s earnings call, management expected the gross margin expansion in fiscal 2025 to be offset by deleveraged SG&A costs due to strategic investments in digital, in-store and in marketing.

We expect adjusted SG&A expenses to increase 59% year over year for the fourth quarter and 31% for fiscal 2025. Our model anticipates operating income to decline 27% for the fourth quarter and 19% for fiscal 2025. 

What the Zacks Model Unveils for DKS

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for DICK'S this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. However, that’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

DICK'S currently has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank of 3. 

DKS’ Valuation Picture

DICK'S has a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 13.22x, which is below the five-year high of 19.19x and the Retail - Miscellaneous industry’s average of 19.12x.

The recent market movements show that DKS’ shares have lost 8.1% in the past three months against the industry's 2.8% growth.

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are some companies worth considering, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.

Ulta Beauty, Inc. ULTA has an Earnings ESP of +11.98% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The consensus estimate for Ulta Beauty’s fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings is pegged at $7.98 per share, implying a decline of 5.7% from the year-ago quarter. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

For Ulta Beauty’s quarterly revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at $3.8 billion, which indicates an increase of 9.9% from the year-ago quarter. ULTA delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 15.7%, on average.

Dollar Tree, Inc. DLTR currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.38% and a Zacks Rank of 3. DLTR is likely to register a top-line decline when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its quarterly revenues is pegged at $5.5 billion, indicating a 33.8% decline from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.

The consensus estimate for Dollar Tree’s earnings is pegged at $2.53 per share, implying a 19.9% growth from the year-ago quarter. DLTR delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 29.1%, on average.

Dollar General Corporation DG currently has an Earnings ESP of +5.38% and a Zacks Rank of 3. DG is likely to register a top-line increase when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its quarterly revenues is pegged at $10.8 billion, indicating a 4.7% rise from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.

The consensus estimate for Dollar General’s earnings is pegged at $1.61 per share, implying a 4.2% decline from the year-ago quarter. DG delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 22.9%, on average.

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research