A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL). Shares have added about 4.2% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Old Dominion due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
Earnings Beat at Old Dominion in Q4
Old Dominion reported solid fourth-quarter 2025 results, wherein its earnings and revenues surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate.
Quarterly earnings per share of $1.09 beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.06 but dipped 11.4% year over year. The decrease in ODFL’s revenues resulted in a year-over-year decline in the bottom line in the fourth quarter.
Revenues of $1.31 billion beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.3 billion but decreased 5.7% year over year. The downside in ODFL’s fourth-quarter revenues was owing to a 10.7% decrease in its LTL tons per day. Revenues from LTL services came in at $1.29 billion (down 5.6% year over year), due to the freight downturn. Other services revenues fell 15.5% year over year to $11.4 million.
In the quarter under review, LTL weight per shipment dipped 1% and LTL revenue per shipment inched up 4.6% year over year. LTL shipments and LTL shipments per day were both down 9.7% on a year-over-year basis. LTL revenue per hundredweight, excluding fuel surcharges, grew 4.9% year over year.
Total operating expenses declined 4.7% year over year to $1 billion. The operating income decreased 8.9% year over year to $304.2 million. Operating ratio (operating expenses as a % of revenues) worsened to 76.7% from 75.9% in the year-ago quarter. A lower value of the metric is preferable.
Old Dominion exited the December-end quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $120.1 million compared with $108.7 million at the end of the prior year. Long-term debt at the end of the final quarter of 2025 was $20 million compared with $39.9 million at 2024-end.
During 2025, ODFL rewarded its shareholders with $235.6 million of cash dividends and $730.3 million worth of share repurchases. ODFL generated $310.2 million of net cash from operating activities during the fourth quarter of 2025. Capital expenditures were $45.7 million during the reported quarter.
For 2026, ODFL anticipates its aggregate capital expenditures to be around $265 million, which includes planned expenditures of $125 million for real estate and service center expansion projects, $95 million for tractors and trailers, and $45 million for information technology and other assets.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
It turns out, estimates review have trended downward during the past month.
VGM Scores
At this time, Old Dominion has a average Growth Score of C, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with a D. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock has a grade of F on the value side, putting it in the lowest quintile for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Interestingly, Old Dominion has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry Player
Old Dominion belongs to the Zacks Transportation - Truck industry. Another stock from the same industry, Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings (KNX), has gained 3.1% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended December 2025.
Knight-Swift reported revenues of $1.86 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -0.4%. EPS of $0.31 for the same period compares with $0.36 a year ago.
For the current quarter, Knight-Swift is expected to post earnings of $0.29 per share, indicating a change of +3.6% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +0.3% over the last 30 days.
The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Knight-Swift. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of B.
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Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL): Free Stock Analysis Report Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (KNX): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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