As Elon Musk‘s SpaceX aims to raise a record-breaking $50 billion at a $1.75 trillion valuation in its forthcoming IPO, one analyst feels reaching this ambitious target is far from certain.
“Whether SpaceX can get there is really a moonshot,” Jack Ciesielski, a renowned American accounting expert, told Fortune. The success of SpaceX’s IPO is contingent on two elements—a rapidly growing market and significant monopoly power.
Despite competition from smaller firms such as Jeff Bezos’s Blue Origin, SpaceX’s best opportunity lies in gaining a “huge lead” that enables it to achieve economies of scale in rocket production, unmatched by any rival, stated Ciesielski.
However, Analyst Franco Granda of PitchBook stated earlier this month that SpaceX’s $1.75 trillion target is achievable based on its “gigantic” growth opportunities, particularly for Starlink.
By 2040, PitchBook projects $150 billion in revenue and $95 billion in EBITDA for SpaceX, driven by Starlink reaching 1.2 billion subscribers and Starship achieving daily launches, which could cut satellite deployment costs by ~70%.
Competition Heats Up as SpaceX Eyes IPO
The union of SpaceX and xAI could lead to the largest single IPO capital raise in history. If accomplished, SpaceX’s market cap would be second only to Saudi Aramco.
SpaceX acquired Elon Musk's AI startup xAI earlier this year, valuing the combined company at $1.25 trillion, and is reportedly considering a dual-class share structure that would give insiders, including Musk, greater voting control.
February reports suggested that SpaceX challenged traditional IPO norms by pushing for a fast-track entry into major stock indexes, aiming to boost liquidity. Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C) last week joined the list of banks preparing SpaceX’s IPO, with the company reportedly set to confidentially file for an IPO as soon as the following month.
Meanwhile, competition in the space industry is heating up. Last week, Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) formally urged the FCC to reject SpaceX’s proposal to launch a million satellites, citing feasibility and potential orbital congestion concerns.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by a Benzinga editor.
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