Cameco Gears Up to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

Cameco Corporation CCJ is scheduled to report first-quarter 2025 results on May 1, before the opening bell.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CCJ’s earnings for the first quarter is pegged at 21 cents per share, which indicates a 110% improvement from the prior-year quarter’s figure. Over the past 60 days, the estimate has moved up 31.25%.

Cameco’s Earnings Surprise History

Cameco’s earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters, while surpassing in one. CCJ has an average trailing four-quarter negative earnings surprise of 56.20%. The trend is shown in the chart below. 

(Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.)

What the Zacks Model Unveils for Cameco

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Cameco this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, but that is not the case here.

You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for Cameco is 0.00%.

Zacks Rank: CCJ currently carries a Zacks Rank of 2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Factors Likely to Have Shaped CCJ’s Q1 Performance

CCJ has a 69.8% stake in the McArthur River mine and 83% interest in the Key Lake mill, the world's largest high-grade uranium mine and mill. Cameco owns a 54.5% interest in Cigar Lake, which is the world’s highest-grade uranium mine.

The company intends to produce 18 million pounds of uranium (100% basis) at each of McArthur River/Key Lake and Cigar Lake in 2025. Cameco’s expected share from these mines is 22.4 million pounds. 

CCJ had stated plans to sell 31-34 million pounds of uranium in 2025 compared with 33.6 million pounds of uranium sold in 2024. 

Cameco’s share of production during the first quarter of 2024 was 5.8 million pounds and sales volume was 7.3 million pounds. Backed by the upbeat performances at Key Lake mill in 2024, as well as the company’s investments in automation, digitization and optimization projects, we expect production to be higher year over year in the first quarter of 2025. While higher production and sales volumes are expected to reflect on Cameco’s first-quarter results, it is expected to have been offset by lower uranium prices. 

Notably, uranium spot prices averaged around $66.18 per pound for the first quarter, 30% lower year over year. 

Cameco also owns a 40% stake in the Inkai mine, which has been facing procurement and supply-chain issues, mainly related to sulfuric acid deliveries. Transportation challenges, construction delays and inflationary production costs are other headwinds.  On top of this, production at Inkai was temporarily paused on Jan. 1 due to the delayed submission of certain regulatory documents to Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Energy. Even though production resumed on Jan. 23, CCJ stated that production plans for 2025 and subsequent years remain uncertain. This is expected to have been a setback to its first-quarter performance. 

Fuel services (which include UF6 conversion, UO2 and heavy water reactor fuel bundles) production for 2025 is expected to be in the band of 13-14 million kgU. The company had produced 13.5 million kgU in 2024. 

Production volume in the first quarter of 2025 was 3.7 kgU and sales volume was 1.5 kgU.  We expect the first-quarter 2025 numbers to be higher than these levels and likely to have positively influenced CCJ’s first-quarter performance. 

Meanwhile, the average unit cost of production at McArthur River/Key Lake is expected to have been higher while the average unit production cost at Cigar Lake is expected to have trended down with increased planned production. The company has been lowering its debt levels, which is likely to have led to lower interest expenses, thereby boosting earnings.

Cameco has been progressing to lower administration, exploration and operating costs as well as capital expenditure. This is likely to have helped offset the impacts of elevated costs on CCJ’s earnings.

CCJ’s Price Performance 

Shares of Cameco have lost 13.3% in a year compared with the industry’s 11.3% decline.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are some basic material companies, which according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. CF, scheduled to release earnings on May 7, has an Earnings ESP of +3.67% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

The consensus estimate for CF Industries’ earnings for the first quarter of 2025 is pegged at $1.43 per share, indicating year-over-year growth of 38.8%. CF Industries has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 18.1%.

Kinross Gold Corporation KGC, scheduled to release first-quarter earnings on May 6, has an Earnings ESP of +11.07% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Kinross Gold's earnings for the first quarter of 2025 is pegged at 22 cents per share, indicating a surge of 120% from the year-ago quarter’s actual. The company has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 23.7%.

Methanex Corporation MEOH, scheduled to release first-quarter earnings on April 30, has an Earnings ESP of +4.74%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Methanex's earnings for the first quarter of 2025 is pegged at $1.25 per share, indicating a surge of 92.3% from the year-ago quarter’s figure. MEOH currently has a Zacks Rank of 3. Methanex has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 85.2%.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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