Sentiment Says Bear, Market Hints Otherwise

Wall Street Sentiment is Historically Bearish

“It is easy in the world to live after the world’s opinion; it is easy in solitude after our own; but the great man is he who, in the midst of the crowd, keeps with perfect sweetness the independence of solitude.” ~ Ralph Waldo Emerson

Emerson’s quote is powerful, for both life and the stock market. On Wall Street, the average investor gets fearful when they should be greedy and vice versa. When the crowd is all on one side of the market, it often marks a bottom. Today, I will dissect three of my favorite sentiment indicators, including the CNN Fear & Greed Index, NAAIM Exposure Index, and AAII Sentiment Survey:

·       AAII Sentiment Survey: A weekly poll of retail investors that asks their opinion on the market’s direction over the next six months. The survey asks whether the surveyed investors are bullish, bearish, or neutral. AAII just recorded its ninth consecutive week with bearish sentiment greater than 50%. This is a record long streak, and it is even more impactful when you realize that the AAII survey is more than 30 years old.

·       CNN Fear & Greed Index: The index gauges the overall sentiment on Wall Street by combining seven unique market indicators and providing a reading between “extreme greed” (maximum 100) or “extreme fear” (minimum 0). The index recently recorded an extreme fear reading of 3, one of the lowest possible readings.

·       National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM): The NAAIM exposure index measures the average percentage of portfolio exposure to U.S. equities of participating active investment managers. NAAIM exposure has plunged from over 100% in late 2024 to under 40 this month.

IPO Market: Animal Spirits are Reappearing

The IPO market is one of the best gauges of “risk-on” appetite for investors on Wall Street. Despite the market volatility, thus far, in 2025, there have been 98 IPOs, 69% higher than at the same time in 2024. Despite concerns about slowing AI demand, CoreWeave (CRWV) went public late last month and is trading above its IPO day price. Meanwhile, Cantor Equity Partners (CEP) has screamed higher by 155% just this week!

Big Tech Rebounds as Trade Rhetoric Cools

Finally, trade tensions between the U.S. and China appear to be cooling. The cooling rhetoric is good news for big tech stocks that rely on China for production or its massive consumer market, like Tesla (TSLA), Nvidia (NVDA), and Apple (AAPL).

Bottom Line

Historically bearish sentiment, mixed with an easing of trade war rhetoric and a healthy IPO market, means Wall Street bulls are ready to take the baton.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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