Fiber optics concern and semiconductor supplier Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd (NASDAQ:CRDO) is down 1.8% to trade at $102.20 today. The shares have taken a 52% haircut off their Dec. 2 all-time high of $213.80, and are 29% lower in 2026 alone. The good news is that this drawdown has CRDO testing a historically bullish trendline.
According to Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, Credo stock is within 0.75 of the 320-day moving average's 20-day average true range (ATR), after remaining above it 80% of the time in the last two weeks and in 80% of the last 42 trading sessions. This signal has occurred four other times during the past 10 years, after which the stock was higher one week later 75% of the time, with an average return of 10.1%. One month later, the stock was higher every time, with an average 19.1% pop.
A move of similar magnitude in a month will take shares out of a downtrend line from those December highs. Longer term, the fiber optics specialist is up 130% year over year.
Options are looking affordable, per CRDO's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) that sits in the 25th percentile of its annual range. In other words, near-term option traders are pricing in relatively low volatility expectations. Plus, the stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) comes in at 80 out of 100. In other words, shares have consistently realized higher volatility than its options have priced in over the past 12 months.
