Will Production Growth Help Expand Energy Beat Q1 Earnings Estimates?

Expand Energy Corporation EXE is set to release first-quarter results on April 29. The current Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter is a profit of $1.85 per share on revenues of $2.2 billion.

Let’s delve into the factors that might have influenced the energy explorer’s performance in the March quarter. But it’s worth taking a look at Expand Energy’s previous-quarter performance first.

Highlights of Q4 Earnings & Surprise History

In the last reported quarter, this Oklahoma City-based natural gas producer outperformed the consensus mark on strong production. Expand Energy had reported adjusted earnings per share of 55 cents, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 53 cents. However, the company’s quarterly revenues of $1.6 billion missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 9.7% due to lower-than-expected natural gas realizations.

EXE beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in two of the last four quarters and missed in the other two, resulting in an earnings surprise of 67.5%, on average. This is depicted in the graph below:

Expand Energy Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Expand Energy Corporation price-eps-surprise | Expand Energy Corporation Quote

Trend in Estimate Revision

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fourth-quarter bottom line has been revised 8.2% upward in the past seven days. The estimated figure indicates a 230.4% improvement year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues, meanwhile, suggests a 271.3% increase from the year-ago period.

(See the Zacks Earnings Calendar to stay ahead of market-making news.)

Factors to Consider

Expand Energy has solidified itself as the largest natural gas producer in the United States following the Chesapeake-Southwestern merger. With key assets in the Haynesville and Marcellus basins, EXE is well-positioned to capitalize on the increasing demand for natural gas, driven by LNG exports, AI/data centers, EV expansion, and broader electrification trends. Consequently, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Expand Energy’s average daily fourth-quarter volume is pegged at 6,774 million cubic feet equivalent (MMcfe), up 6% from the year-ago level of 6,390 MMcfe.

On a further bullish note, higher natural gas realizations might have amplified the positive impact. For the to-be-reported quarter, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for EXE’s average sales price for the commodity is pegged at $3.36 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf), indicating a rise from the fourth-quarter realization of $2.45 per Mcf. This price gain is likely to have buoyed the revenues and cash flows of Expand Energy, as more than 90% of the company’s total production is gas.

Why a Likely Positive Surprise?

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Expand Energy this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

EXE has an Earnings ESP of +4.22% and a Zacks Rank #1.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Other Stocks to Consider

Expand Energy is not the only company looking up this earnings cycle. Here are some other energy firms that you may want to consider on the basis of our model:

Antero Resources (AR) has an Earnings ESP of +2.79% and a Zacks Rank #2. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on April 30.AR

Notably, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Antero Resources’ 2025 earnings per share indicates an astounding 1,595.2% year-over-year growth. Valued at around $10.7 billion, Antero Resources has gained 3.5% in a year.

Comstock Resources CRK has an Earnings ESP of +5.86% and a Zacks Rank #3. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on April 30.

Notably, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Comstock Resources’ 2025 earnings per share indicates 404.2% year-over-year growth. Valued at around $5.4 billion, Comstock Resources has surged 78.3% in a year.

ProPetro Holding PUMP has an Earnings ESP of +1.33% and a Zacks Rank #3. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on April 29.

Notably, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for ProPetro Holdings’ 2025 earnings per share indicates 7.4% year-over-year growth. Valued at around $524.1 million, ProPetro Holding has lost 40.5% in a year.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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