Navient Gears Up to Announce Q1 Earnings: What's in the Cards?

Navient Corporation NAVI is scheduled to report first-quarter 2025 results on April 30, before the opening bell. Its quarterly revenues and earnings are expected to have declined on a year-over-year basis.

In the last reported quarter, NAVI’s adjusted earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Results were driven by a rise in other income and lower expenses. A decline in provision for loan losses was another positive. However, a decrease in net interest income (NII) was a headwind.

NAVI has an impressive earnings surprise history. Its earnings outpaced estimates in each of the trailing four quarters and missed once, with the average earnings surprise being 17.41%.
 

Navient Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Navient Corporation price-eps-surprise | Navient Corporation Quote

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings of 19 cents per share has been revised upward by 72.7% in the past week. The figure indicates a 69.8% plunge from the year-ago reported figure.

The consensus estimate for sales of $134.1 million suggests a decline of 17.7%.

Factors to Influence Navient’s Results in Q1

Revenues: Per the Fed’s latest data, consumer loan demand was decent in the first quarter. The tariff-related uncertainty created demand for consumer goods before the prices increased. As such, Navient’s Consumer Lending segment is expected to have recorded a decent rise in revenues. However, elevated prepayment due to student loan forgiveness and subdued origination volume are likely to have limited the company’s revenue growth in the Federal Education Loans segment.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NII (Core) is pegged at $140.4 million, indicating sequential growth of 4.8%. The consensus estimate for NII (Federal Education loan) is pegged at $35 million, suggesting a slight rise on a sequential basis. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NII (consumer lending) is pegged at $111 million, implying a decline of 5.2%. 

In February, Navient completed the sale of its Government Services business to an affiliate of Gallant Capital Partners, LLC. Hence, the company fully exited the business processing solution space.

The consensus estimate for servicing revenues is pegged at $4.75 million, indicating a 20.8% fall from the prior quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for asset recovery and business processing revenues of $23 million implies a 46.6% decline. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total non-interest income of $42.2 million indicates a 45.3% jump sequentially.

Expenses: Navient's cost-control measures are expected to have boosted operating efficiency and lowered expenses in the first quarter. Last year, the company announced strategic actions, which are expected to have resulted in a further decline in operating expenses in the to-be-reported quarter.

What the Zacks Model Reveals for Navient

NAVI does not have the right combination of the two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better — for increasing the odds of an earnings beat. 

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for Navient is -3.14%.

Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Performance of NAVI’s Peers

Capital One’s COF first-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of $4.06 per share handily surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.66. The bottom line also compared favorably with $3.21 in the prior-year quarter. (See the Zacks Earnings Calendar to stay ahead of market-making news.)

Results benefited from higher net interest income (NII) and non-interest income. Also, provisions declined during the quarter. However, the increase in expenses and lower loan balance were undermining factors.

Ally Financial’s ALLY first-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of 58 cents per share handily surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 43 cents. Also, the bottom line reflected a jump of 41.5% from the year-ago quarter.

Results benefited from a rise in net finance revenues and lower provisions. However, lower other revenues, higher non-interest expenses and a decline in net finance receivables and loans and deposits were the undermining factors for Ally.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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