HSBC Downgrades AstraZeneca to Hold
AstraZeneca (NASDAQ:AZN) shares moved lower on Monday after HSBC downgraded the pharmaceutical group to Hold from Buy and reduced its price target to 13,750p from 16,500p, following disappointing Phase 3 results for Wainua.
“Wainua setback impairs our bull case, given the more difficult catalyst path ahead,” HSBC analyst Rajesh Kumar said in a research note.
The stock fell 1.3% in London trading, while AstraZeneca’s U.S.-listed shares declined 1.5% in premarket trading.
Wainua Results Alter Investment Case
HSBC said successful results from the CARDIO-TTR study had previously formed a central part of its positive investment thesis, describing the programme as a commercial opportunity worth more than US$5 billion.
However, Kumar now believes AstraZeneca’s path towards generating more than US$80 billion in peak annual revenue by 2030 has become increasingly dependent on future clinical milestones that carry greater execution risk and are unlikely to be delivered before 2027.
Attention Turns to Upcoming Clinical Trials
The brokerage also highlighted concerns over two key late-stage readouts expected during the second half of 2026.
According to Kumar, HSBC’s internal assessment left the firm “rather uncomfortable” with the prospects for both the SERENA-4 and AVANZAR studies.
The analyst warned that further clinical disappointments could begin to undermine investor confidence in AstraZeneca’s research pipeline.
“If three trials fail in a sequence, the widely held view of Astra’s market-leading R&D platform might lose its shine,” Kumar said.
Revenue Outlook Faces Greater Scrutiny
HSBC’s scenario analysis suggests that disappointing outcomes from both SERENA-4 and AVANZAR would raise fresh questions about AstraZeneca’s ability to offset revenue pressures linked to major patent expiries expected in the early 2030s.
In that scenario, the broker believes upside for the shares could remain limited over the next six to nine months until new catalysts emerge in 2027.
“We downgrade the stock to a Hold rating (from Buy) as we no longer find the risk-reward balance attractive, particularly with the remaining catalyst path for 2026 (SERENA 4, AVANZAR) skewed to downside risks,” Kumar concluded.
AstraZeneca stock price
