Can Amgen Keep the Beat Streak Alive This Earnings Season?

Amgen AMGN will report first-quarter 2025 results on May 1, after market close. In the last reported quarter, the company beat earnings expectations by 5.57%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter sales and earnings is pegged at $7.96 billion and $4.16 per share, respectively. (Find the latest earnings estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.)

Factors to Consider for Amgen

Amgen’s product sales are expected to have been driven by strong volume growth of products like Evenity, Repatha, Kyprolis and Blincyto among others. However, prices of most products are expected to have declined due to higher rebates to support expanded access.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Evenity, Repatha, Kyprolis and Blincyto sales is pegged at $406 million, $616 million, $381 million and $333.0 million, respectively.

Our estimates for Evenity, Repatha, Kyprolis and Blincyto sales are pegged at $370 million, $570.9 million, $380.8 million and $334.5 million, respectively.

Patents for RANKL antibodies (including sequences) for Prolia and Xgeva expired in February 2025 in the United States while the same will expire in some European countries in November 2025. Sales of these best-selling drugs are expected to erode significantly in 2025 due to patent erosion. Investors will watch Prolia and Xgeva’s sales numbers to determine the impact of biosimilar competition.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Prolia and Xgeva is $990.0 million and $542 million, respectively.

In addition, higher volumes of newer drugs like Tezspire and Tavneos are expected to have contributed to top-line growth, driven by new patient volume growth.

The U.S. launch of Imdelltra (tarlatamab), approved for pre-treated advanced small cell lung cancer (ES-SCLC) in May 2024, has been progressing well. The drug recorded high sequential growth in the third and fourth quarters of 2024. The positive growth is expected to continue in the first quarter of 2025.

Enbrel sales are likely to have declined due to declining prices. Otezla sales were soft in the past few quarters.

Sales of Otezla and Enbrel are expected to have been lower in the first quarter of 2025 compared with the other quarters per historical trends due to the impact of benefit plan changes, insurance re-verification and increased co-pay expenses as U.S. patients work through deductibles.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Otezla is $402.0 million, while our estimate is $392.2 million.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Enbrel is $503.0 million, while our estimate is $414.7 million.

Sales of Tepezza, Krystexxa and Uplizna, acquired from the October 2023 acquisition of Horizon, are likely to have pulled up the top line.

Lower revenues from oncology biosimilars (Kanjinti and Mvasi) due to increased competitive pressure and legacy established products are expected to have hurt the top line. However, sales of Amjevita/Amgevita, a biosimilar version of AbbVie’s Humira, are likely to have increased.

Amgen launched the biosimilar version of J&J’s Stelara, Wezlana, in January and that of Regeneron’s Eylea, Pavblu, in the fourth quarter of 2024. Investors will be watching their sales numbers on the conference call. Bekemv, a biosimilar version of AstraZeneca’s Soliris, was approved in the United States in May 2024 and is expected to be launched in the second quarter of 2025.

In the first quarter of 2025, Amgen expects its operating margin to be the lowest of the year at around 42% while for the other quarters of the year, operating margin is expected to be roughly 46%. While R&D costs are expected to increase, SG&A costs, as a percentage of product sales, are expected to decline.

Investors will look for updates on Amgen’s important pipeline candidate, MariTide (maridebart cafraglutide), a GIPR/GLP-1 receptor for obesity.

AMGN’s Earnings Surprise History

This large biotech’s performance has been strong, with earnings beating estimates in the trailing four quarters. The company delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 5.23%, on average.

Amgen Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Amgen Inc. price-eps-surprise | Amgen Inc. Quote

Amgen’s stock has risen 9.5% so far this year against a decrease of 4.7% for the industry.

What Our Model Says for AMGN

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Amgen this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here.

Earnings ESP: Amgen’s Earnings ESP is -0.05%.  You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Amgen has a Zacks Rank #3.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some drug/biotech stocks that have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:

Exelixis EXEL has an Earnings ESP of +7.14% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Exelixis’ stock has risen 15.5% so far this year. Exelixis beat earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters while missing in one. EXEL has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 26.87%, on average.

Blueprint Medicines BPMC has an Earnings ESP of +84.44% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Blueprint Medicines’ stock has risen 1.5% so far this year. BPMC beat earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters while missing in the remaining quarter. On average, BPMC delivered an earnings surprise of 13.10% in the last four quarters.

Denali Therapeutics DNLI has an Earnings ESP of +4.87% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Denali’s stock has risen 20.2% year to date. DNLI missed earnings estimates in two of the last four quarters while beating on the remaining two occasions. On average, Denali witnessed an earnings surprise of 6.51% in the last four quarters.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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