Oil's Worst Month Since 2021: Will Energy ETFs Rebound?

Oil prices continued their downward trend as global trade tensions weakened the demand outlook. Brent crude fell toward $65 a barrel for a second successive day, while West Texas Intermediate hovered near $61.

United States Oil Fund LP USO is down 12.4% over the past month (as of April 28, 2025) while United States Brent Oil Fund LP BNO has lost 11.9% over the past month. A key U.S. manufacturing index showed a substantial decline, reflecting the economic toll of President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

China intensified its resistance to U.S. trade measures. Geopolitical developments also weigh on markets, with potential progress in U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations. These talks could eventually ease restrictions on Iranian oil exports.

Brent Crude Faces Steep Monthly Loss

Brent crude is heading toward its largest monthly decline since 2021. The price drop has been driven by the sharp escalation of U.S. tariffs on global trade partners and OPEC+ discussions to boost oil production. While many nations are negotiating with Washington, China has so far refrained from entering talks.

Market Indicators Show Short-Term Tightness

Despite April’s price drop, some market fundamentals suggest near-term tightness. The Brent futures curve remains in backwardation, with the June contract trading at a premium over July’s—indicating robust short-term demand, probably on cues of trade de-escalation (which could boost demand). This spread is currently at its strongest level in nearly three months, as quoted on Bloomberg.

Massive Blackout Hits Iberian Peninsula

In Europe, a major power outage disrupted most of Spain and the entirety of Portugal—marking the continent’s worst blackout in years. Several Spanish oil refineries were forced to shut down temporarily, as quoted on Bloomberg. This could boost the short-demand of energy.

ETFs in Focus  

Amid oil’s worst month since 2021, energy exchange-traded funds (ETFs) like Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund XLE lost 11.2% past month (as of April 28, 2025). Inverse oil ETFs like ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil SCO surged 21.1% past month.

However, as mentioned above, the oil ETFs may stage a recovery in the near term. Investors with a strong stomach for risks may play the regular oil funds with a very short-term outlook

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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