Early delivery lead times for Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL)’s iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max are generally shorter than those recorded during last year’s iPhone 17 launch, according to JPMorgan, which said the data could partly reflect consumers waiting for Apple’s planned foldable device.
Apple announced the iPhone 18 series on September 9, with pre-orders for the Pro and Pro Max models beginning September 12 and general availability scheduled for September 18.
JPMorgan analysts led by Samik Chatterjee tracked delivery lead times in the US, China, Germany and the UK during the first week of pre-orders as an indicator of demand.
Globally, home-delivery lead times averaged seven days for the iPhone 18 Pro and 19 days for the Pro Max. That compared with 15 and 24 days, respectively, for the equivalent iPhone 17 models a year earlier.
“The shortfall relative to last year is more notable in the Pro SKU rather than the Pro Max SKU,” the analysts said.
US Pro Max Lead Times Slightly Above Prior Year
In the US, which represents approximately 34% of iPhone shipments, lead times were two days for the iPhone 18 Pro and 22 days for the Pro Max.
That compared with four and 21 days, respectively, for the corresponding iPhone 17 models last year.
JPMorgan said Pro Max delivery times were “tracking modestly ahead of the prior year even as the Pro tracks lower.”
China Records Largest Year-on-Year Change
China recorded the largest year-on-year reduction among the markets monitored by JPMorgan.
Lead times for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max were 13 and 21 days, respectively, compared with 30 days for both equivalent models a year earlier. China accounts for approximately 19% of iPhone shipments.
JPMorgan said it expects Apple’s foldable phone, called Duo, to attract demand in China because consumers “are already primed for adoption of the foldable form factor” following several years of foldable devices from domestic manufacturers.
In Germany, lead times stood at five days for the iPhone 18 Pro and 16 days for the Pro Max, compared with 14 and 22 days a year earlier.
UK lead times were nine and 19 days, respectively, down from 14 and 22 days. Germany and the UK represent approximately 3% and 4% of iPhone shipments, respectively.
JPMorgan Cautions Against Early Demand Conclusions
Despite the shorter delivery times, JPMorgan said the initial data should be interpreted cautiously.
The analysts noted that “supply allocations across the Pro Max and Pro SKU can be different from prior years” because of changes to this year’s product rollout, including the absence of a base model launch and the incremental introduction of Apple’s foldable device this autumn.
JPMorgan said monitoring how delivery lead times develop over the coming weeks will be important in assessing underlying demand for the new iPhone models.
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