Tech Stocks: Echoes of 1998

Stock Market History Doesn’t Repeat Itself but it Often Rhymes

The now-infamous 1987 documentary “Trader” documents a young, up-and-coming hedge fund manager’s hectic, day-to-day life. That trader’s name was Paul Tudor Jones. In the real-life documentary, Jones and his partner Peter Borish are astonished when they discover that a price chart of the late 1920s stock market mirrored the 1980s stock market. The rest is history. Paul Tudor Jones plowed into a sizable market short position and would clear in estimated $100 million when the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 22.60% on “Black Monday” (October 19^th, 1987).

Many new traders are surprised when they learn that Paul Tudor Jones made his Black Monday fortune not by using an overly complex analysis but instead by through technical analysis, pattern recognition, and conviction.

Pattern recognition is one of the most valuable tools a trader can have in their toolbox. Which brings me to this: the current AI buildout is closely mirroring the internet boom of the late 1990s. Both cycles occurred with a major technological breakthrough. In late 1994, Netscape released its first web browser. Meanwhile, in November 2022, OpenAI launched ChatGPT. Now for the shocking part.

Through roughly 1,000 days, the Nasdaq’s return is almost identical to the return the Nasdaq enjoyed in the 1,000 days following Netscape’s first browser launch. What’s even more staggering is that, in each instance, a major fund suffered significant losses, leading to a temporary market pullback before a raging bull market. In 1998 it was Long Term Capital Management, and in 2026 it was Situational Awareness. If the precedent is to continue to hold, it suggests that AI stocks have a lot more meat on the bone and are likely in the early innings of a generational bull market.

The AI Bull Market: More than Technical Speculation

In a prophetic 1997 interview, Jeff Bezos recalled the precise moment he discovered the statistic that compelled him to leave his Wall Street job and start Amazon:

“I came across this startling statistic that web usage was growing at 2,300% a year. I’d never seen or head of anything that grew that fast.”

Although technical analysis can provide a valuable roadmap for traders, fundamental conviction is the only thing that can provide the necessary conviction to hold for the duration of a move. Contrary to the opinions of many Wall Street pundits, earnings growth in leading AI stocks is accelerating rapidly. For instance, Zacks Consensus Analyst Estimates suggest that, SanDisk (SNDK), the leading flash memory provider, will grow earnings at a staggering 3,689.34% next quarter.

Bottom Line

The AI cycle continues to echo the monumental trajectory of the late 19990s internet boom. History suggests that temporary market pullbacks and high-profile fund corrections are merely chapters in a much larger story.

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research