FEMSA Misses On EPS As OXXO Mexico's Traffic Recovery Comes At A Gross-Margin Cost

FEMSA (NYSE: FMX) reported third-quarter earnings of $1.10 per share, missing the $1.18 consensus by 6.8%. Revenue of $13.655 billion beat the $13.46 billion estimate by 1.4%. The miss sits awkwardly beside strong growth: earnings rose 25.0% year over year and revenue rose 16.7%. In pesos, management reported consolidated revenue up 9.8% and operating income up 9.9%. That central tension runs through the quarter. FEMSA's top line and its two largest businesses are performing well, but the profit conversion investors were paying for did not fully arrive. Meanwhile, management is already preparing shareholders for a tougher 2027.

The consolidated trend is improving. Operating income growth accelerated from 5.5% in the first quarter to 7.2% in the second and 9.9% now, or 13.4% on a currency-neutral basis. Net income rose 81% to 10.6 billion pesos. The quality of that improvement deserves scrutiny, though. Coca-Cola FEMSA's 15.4% operating income gain falls to 7.4% excluding an insurance benefit. Much of the strength is also concentrated in OXXO Mexico and the bottler. The rest of the portfolio went backward:

• Europe's operating income fell 24.8%.
• Health's dropped 63.2%.
• Americas & Mobility's collapsed 75.9%, hit by Brazil losses and fuel price commitments that compressed OXXO Gas margins.

OXXO Mexico is the story investors care most about, and the call delivered a credible answer on demand. Same-store sales rose 9.2%, with traffic up 3.5%. That compares with a 2.0% traffic gain in the second quarter, a slight decline in the first quarter, and a 0.6% drop in late 2025. Management said the World Cup contributed minimally. Every region grew traffic, and year-to-date share in core impulse categories sits above 2024 levels. Spin's average tender at OXXO Mexico climbed to 52.1% from 48.2%.

The recovery is being bought, however:

• **Gross margin:** fell 120 basis points, or roughly 70 basis points normalized, after a 140-basis-point gain in the first quarter.
• **Operating margin:** slipped 40 basis points.
• **Operating income growth:** decelerated to 5.8% (about 8% excluding store closures), down from 12.3% in the second quarter and 20.9% in the first.

The headline masks a profit trajectory that is moving the wrong way even as traffic improves.

The forward-looking picture cuts both ways. On the positive side:

• Management wants to triple food service's share of OXXO Mexico sales, supported by a full buyout of Caffenio and about 300 coffee drive-through stores.
• Bara added 112 net stores and posted 10.3% same-store sales, with 2027 unit growth guided above 30%.
• OXXO Colombia mature-store traffic grew at a high single-digit rate.
• A new buyback was layered on top of the roughly 41 billion peso dividend cycle.
• Expected year-end leverage of about 1.5-1.6x, against a 2x target, leaves room for extraordinary returns in early 2027.

Bears have legitimate ammunition, too:

• About 250 OXXO Mexico closures leave 2026 net openings at 462 year-to-date, well short of the 1,000 pace.
• Health took another roughly 430 million peso Colombia credit provision, its third such hit in four quarters.
• Europe lost key U.S. B2B accounts.
• Restructuring savings have only one or two quarters left to run.
• A 13% minimum wage increase and a shorter workweek will pressure 2027 selling expenses.

Management called 2027 "a tough year," flagged a colder, rainier fourth quarter, Brazil volatility and tougher comparisons, and offered no formal guidance.

Investor expectations had already cooled heading into the print. Earnings Whispers sentiment remained positive but weakened meaningfully, falling from 0.36 to 0.21. Shares closed at $124.26 on the eve of the report, down 5.4% from the open after the July release. The stock hit a 52-week high of $141.47 on that July report day and now sits 12.2% below it. The pattern suggests the market faded the prior quarter's enthusiasm and then partially recovered. Shares rebounded 9.7% from an early-October low of $113.29 and remain 5.2% above the 200-day moving average near $118. Supporting trend readings lean modestly constructive, with momentum and AVWAP positive while price is neutral. That fits a stock that has been repairing rather than breaking down.

The bottom line is that FEMSA's quarter validated the demand side of the OXXO Mexico turnaround but not yet its economics. Traffic and consolidated operating income are accelerating, and capital returns are expanding. Yet the EPS miss, the deceleration in OXXO Mexico profit growth, persistent drag from Europe, Health and Mobility, and management's explicit caution on 2027 make the setup more complicated than the revenue beat implies. The key question for the next several quarters is whether traffic gains can be converted back into margin before wage costs and tougher comparisons arrive.

Read our earnings preview for Fomento Economico Mexicano, S.A.B. de C.V.: https://www.earningswhispers.com/article/FMX/20847

This earnings review was originally published on Earnings Whispers.

This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Earnings Whispers and its staff may hold positions in the securities mentioned. It is AI-assisted, based on proprietary Earnings Whispers data and company reports, and edited by Earnings Whispers staff.