Liberty Global's 589% EPS Jump Is Mostly Accounting As Ziggo Momentum Collides With A Deepening UK Retreat

Liberty Global reported third-quarter earnings of $1.32 per share, up 588.9% from a year ago, on revenue of $1.921 billion, up 59.1%. No consensus or Earnings Whisper figure was available. The headline numbers say little about the operating business. Revenue jumped because Liberty began consolidating VodafoneZiggo after buying Vodafone's 50% stake on July 31. On a rebased basis, consolidated revenue grew just 1.0% and consolidated Adjusted EBITDA fell 13.7%. The quarter's real story is a widening split. The Benelux spin-off thesis keeps getting stronger, while the UK joint venture, Virgin Media O2, has moved into a defensive restructuring.

The quality of the earnings beat deserves scrutiny. Net earnings swung to $547.7 million from an $83.4 million loss, but three non-operating items drove most of that:

• a $652.3 million income tax benefit;
• $325.8 million of derivative gains;
• a $121.6 million gain tied to the VodafoneZiggo acquisition.

Reported Adjusted EBITDA rose 79.1% to $602.6 million and Adjusted FCF turned positive at $81.7 million, but both largely reflect the change in perimeter. Beneath them, every reportable segment posted lower rebased EBITDA:

• **Ziggo Group:** down 6.8%.
• **Wyre:** down 12.2%, while capital spending rose 86.9% and Adjusted FCF fell to -€117.7 million.
• **Virgin Media Ireland:** down 30.8%, partly because of a one-time content amortization change of about $10 million.

The Netherlands is where the operating story genuinely improved. VodafoneZiggo added 11,800 broadband subscribers, its best quarter since 2019. That compares with losses of 18,400 a year earlier and puts the business on track for its first full year of broadband growth in seven years. Revenue rose 1.4%, the first growth since Q2 2024, helped by price indexation, the ESPN surcharge and handset sales. Postpaid mobile added 30,700. EBITDA still fell 6.9% on higher marketing, handset, programming and network-resilience costs, which management framed as in line with guidance, and it reiterated EBITDA growth from 2027. Telenet grew broadband for a sixth straight quarter and posted its best postpaid adds since Q1 2023. However, higher DAZN programming fees and a 2% decline in fixed ARPU pushed IFRS EBITDA down 3.2% rebased.

The UK is where the setup deteriorated.

• **Results:** VMO2's rebased revenue fell 5.7%. IFRS EBITDA declined 2.6%, flattered by a roughly $34 million legal benefit and a change in commission amortization. Fixed ARPU fell 5.0%, worse than the decline in Q2. Adjusted FCF swung to -£197.3 million from +£369.8 million.
• **Strategy:** Management halted VMO2's own fiber build and unveiled £800 million of run-rate cost cuts by 2029, including a 30% reduction in people costs.
• **Distribution:** The roughly £200 million 2026 shareholder distribution is now under review until Q1 2027.
• **Regulation and leverage:** The UK competition regulator (CMA) issued an adverse interim report on the Netomnia transaction, a sharp reversal from earlier confidence. On the call, management acknowledged leverage above the 4-5x target, declined to rule out a debt process with bonds pricing in restructuring risk, and offered no service-revenue outlook.

Tone toward UK regulation was noticeably more combative and frustrated. Bears have legitimate ammunition here.

The catalyst list sits on the other side of the ledger, and nearly all of it is Benelux:

• the Ziggo Group spin-off was pulled forward to Q2 2027, with confidential SEC and AFM filings planned for December;
• synergies are now expected well above the prior €1 billion NPV estimate, including more than $700 million of tax assets;
• the €669 million tower sale will fund deleveraging;
• lead banks and the full executive team are in place.

The parent also reinstated buybacks at $100 million per quarter and the CEO plans personal share purchases. Even so, the year-end corporate cash target slipped to about $1.8 billion from $2.0 billion. Ziggo itself must still bring leverage down from roughly 6x toward 4.5x, a path analysts on the call questioned below about 5x.

Investors have clearly been weighing the UK more heavily. Earnings Whispers sentiment, already negative before the report, fell further from -0.39 to -0.61. The stock is down 19.9% since the open after the July report. It was last at $8.12, about 26% below its $11.00 200-day moving average and roughly 26% below the August 4 inter-earnings high of $11.04. Shares hit a 52-week low of $7.36 on October 26 and have bounced about 10% from there. Trend readings are mostly negative, with price and AVWAP trends negative and momentum neutral.

The bottom line is that the record-looking EPS is a byproduct of consolidation and non-operating gains, not a change in earnings power. The more important developments run in opposite directions. VodafoneZiggo's commercial turnaround and an accelerated, sweetened spin-off give the Benelux case real substance. Meanwhile, VMO2's suspended distribution, regulatory setback, halted fiber build and stretched balance sheet turn the UK from a cash contributor into a source of uncertainty. Until the spin-off crystallizes value or VMO2 stabilizes, the market appears inclined to price the risk before the catalyst.

Read our earnings preview for Liberty Global Ltd.: https://www.earningswhispers.com/article/LBTYA/21492

This earnings review was originally published on Earnings Whispers.

This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Earnings Whispers and its staff may hold positions in the securities mentioned. It is AI-assisted, based on proprietary Earnings Whispers data and company reports, and edited by Earnings Whispers staff.