Vornado Matches The Whisper As Manhattan Leasing Surges, But A Lower Implied 2027 Run Rate Clouds The Story

Vornado Realty Trust delivered comparable FFO of $0.65 per share for the third quarter, a penny above the $0.64 consensus and exactly in line with the $0.65 Earnings Whisper number. Earnings grew 14.0% from a year ago. Revenue of $467.66 million rose 3.1% but missed the consensus by 0.9%. Leasing economics improved sharply, yet the earnings trajectory management laid out for 2027 slipped below the framework investors were given last quarter. That is the central tension. The operating story strengthened while the near-term earnings bar moved lower.

The quality of the quarter is mixed. On a GAAP basis, Vornado swung to a net loss of $0.25 per share from net income of $0.06 a year earlier. The main cause was a jump in real estate depreciation to $155.7 million from $103.6 million, so the loss is largely non-cash. NAREIT FFO rose to $0.62 from $0.58. The adjusted $0.65 figure excludes about $0.03 of items, mainly a deferred tax charge tied to the Farley Building and other expenses. The year-over-year bridge was driven by $17.5 million of rent commencements and $9.0 million from the newly acquired Park Avenue Plaza stake. Those gains were partly offset by $9.3 million of lower interest income and $8.7 million of higher interest expense from the 2033 notes. Alexander's NOI also benefited from termination income at the Rego Park shopping center, which flattered the New York total. Sequentially, the picture looks less impressive. Comparable FFO slipped from $0.67 in the second quarter, a figure management had described as the run rate. The call analysis described the result as 2 cents above consensus. Measured against the Earnings Whispers consensus and the whisper number, however, the quarter was in line rather than a meaningful beat.

Beneath the headline, the Manhattan leasing data was the strongest in recent memory:

• **Pricing.** Office mark-to-markets jumped to +37.2% GAAP and +25.9% cash, up from +7.7% and +5.0% in the second quarter. Starting rents climbed to $123 per square foot from $107. Management said its budgets show this strength continuing through 2028.
• **Occupancy.** New York office occupancy reached 93.0%, up from 92.2% last quarter and 88.4% a year ago. That beat the year-end target early.
• **Backlog.** Signed-not-commenced revenue grew to $204 million from about $180 million.
• **Other assets.** Penn 2 is now 92% occupied. 555 California signed a record $163 per square foot starting rent.

Growth is cooling at the same-store level, however. New York office same-store NOI decelerated to +11.9% GAAP and +8.7% cash, down from +13.7% and +11.9% in the second quarter.

The forward-looking developments cut both ways. On the positive side:

• **350 Park Avenue.** The joint venture closed in October with a 1.05 million square foot Citadel anchor lease, a $3.3 billion construction loan and a projected 9.2% unlevered yield. Vornado expects to book a roughly $485 million gain in the fourth quarter.
• **623 Fifth Avenue.** The project signed its first lease at close to $200 per square foot.
• **Asset sales.** Two sales are well advanced and could free up more than $1 billion, which management flagged for buybacks or opportunistic investment.

On the other side, management now calls the current quarter a net run rate through 2027, which implies roughly $2.60. That compares with about $2.75 implied on the prior call. The cited drivers were:

• higher interest rates, worth roughly a 10-cent headwind;
• more income going offline at the 34th & 7th redevelopment, including signage;
• move-outs at 1290, 330 West 34th and 888 Seventh.

Analysts pressed the point repeatedly. CEO Steven Roth insisted he is "not backing off." Bears have further ammunition on the balance sheet:

• Liquidity fell to $1.9 billion from $2.0 billion in the second quarter and $2.6 billion in the first.
• Leverage rose to 7.9x from 7.7x at the end of last year.
• The 825 Seventh office condo loan went into maturity default in October, and 888 Seventh remains in forbearance.
• Management expects capex and tenant improvement spending to stay elevated for one to two years.
• The CEO flagged concerns about law-firm tenant credit.

Notably, no shares were repurchased in the third quarter.

The market had already cooled on the stock before the report. Shares fell 12.3% from the $39.88 open after the August report to $34.97. They still sit about 4.8% above the 200-day moving average of $33.36, so the longer-term trend has not broken despite the pullback. Investor sentiment remained positive but weakened, falling from 0.41 to 0.30. That is a meaningful but not dramatic reset in expectations. The Earnings Whispers trend readings are mixed: price and AVWAP trends are negative, while sequential growth and momentum remain positive. That split matches a market respecting the operating improvement while discounting the earnings path.

The bottom line is that Vornado's leasing engine is running hotter than at any point this cycle. Mark-to-markets, occupancy and backlog all moved decisively higher, and 350 Park removes a major execution question. But the quarter matched the whisper rather than beating it, sequential FFO dipped, and the implied 2027 earnings bar slipped. For the stock to regain its post-August losses, investors likely need evidence that the asset sales close and that rising rents eventually overwhelm the rate, redevelopment and move-out drag management now concedes.

Read our earnings preview for Vornado Realty Trust: https://www.earningswhispers.com/article/VNO/21442

This earnings review was originally published on Earnings Whispers.

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