Andersons Posts Record Q3 With 64% EPS Growth, But The $915 Million Harvestone Deal Raises The Bet On Low-Carbon Ethanol And Tax Credits

The Andersons delivered record third-quarter earnings of $1.38 per share, up 64.3% from a year ago, on revenue of $2.834 billion, up 5.8%. On its own, that would be a clean step forward for a company in the middle of a multi-year earnings rebuild. But the quarter's results were overshadowed by a much larger development: a $915 million, all-debt-financed agreement to acquire Harvestone Low Carbon Partners (HLCP). That deal is the central tension. Andersons is taking a business that is already earning well above last year and making it substantially more dependent on ethanol economics and federal carbon-credit policy.

The quality of the quarter was solid, with some caveats. GAAP diluted EPS of $1.36 sat just two cents below the adjusted figure, and the only adjustment was about $1 million of severance. That is a cleaner bridge than a year ago, when $0.25 of adjustments separated GAAP from adjusted results. Renewables drove the result with record third-quarter pretax income of $63 million, compared with adjusted pretax income attributable to the company of $46 million a year earlier. That improvement came even though board crush margins fell about $0.10 per gallon. However, $27 million of that segment profit came from 45Z producer tax credits, and those credits also pulled the effective tax rate down to 13%. Results also benefited from the absence of a noncontrolling interest in Renewables, which absorbed $6.5 million in the prior-year quarter. Agribusiness improved to $9 million of adjusted pretax income from $2 million, helped by merchandising gains on volatility tied to the western drought. Those gains were partly offset by weaker grain asset results and lower wheat space income.

The growth trajectory is less impressive than the year-over-year headline suggests. Revenue growth in the quarter looks better than the nine-month picture, where sales were roughly flat at $8.56 billion versus $8.47 billion. Earnings, however, are decelerating against easier comparisons. Year-to-date adjusted EPS of $4.63 compares with $1.19 last year, so the 64.3% third-quarter growth rate is a noticeable slowdown from the first half. Sequentially, the step-down was sharper:

• Adjusted EPS fell to $1.38 from $2.15 in the second quarter.
• Adjusted EBITDA fell to $101 million from $140 million.
• Renewables EBITDA fell to $78 million from $103 million.

Management attributed part of the decline to seasonality and maintenance shutdowns, including an extended outage at Clymers ahead of debottlenecking. Even so, operating momentum clearly cooled from the second-quarter peak. Trailing-12-month adjusted EPS of $6.67 still puts the company close to its $7 exit-2028 target, well ahead of schedule.

HLCP is what changes the investment setup. The deal includes:

• **Assets:** three ethanol plants with roughly 215 million gallons of annual capacity.
• **Expected earnings:** $225 million to $250 million of EBITDA in each of the next three years, against trailing adjusted EBITDA of about $470 million. Management expects the deal to be immediately accretive to EPS.
• **Carbon capture:** Blue Flint is already sequestering carbon, Dakota Spirit is expected to start in early 2027, and Iroquois is targeted for late 2028.
• **Capacity:** combined ethanol capacity of about 730 million gallons at close, rising to 760 million by the third quarter of 2027.

Bears have legitimate ammunition on three fronts:

• **Leverage:** long-term debt to EBITDA rises to about 2.0x from 1.3x.
• **Policy dependence:** roughly half of the deal's value is tied to 45Z and 45Q credits. The CEO himself cautioned that the EBITDA split is complex because carbon capture adds operating costs.
• **Integration:** the deal adds about 40% more ethanol volume.

The balance sheet is already carrying more working capital. Third-quarter operating cash flow was negative $124 million, and short-term debt stood at $495 million versus $141 million a year ago. The planned sale of most 2026 45Z credits, with cash expected later this year, should help.

Near-term operating signals are mixed:

• **Positives:** the eastern harvest is exceeding expectations with record soybean yields, fall fertilizer applications started strongly, the Port of Houston soybean meal export project is operational and booking shipments into 2027, and management expects higher bio-based diesel production to support feedstock merchandising.
• **Negatives:** a delayed harvest and slow farmer selling could push Agribusiness income from the fourth quarter into 2027, and D6 RIN volatility and pending small-refinery-exemption reallocation are weighing on blend margins.

Capex guidance of $225 million, the 14% to 18% tax-rate outlook and the $90 million to $100 million 45Z estimate were reaffirmed rather than raised. Market context is thin: no current sentiment reading or post-report price was available. For reference, shares opened at $76.81 after the August report, and the 200-day moving average stands at $69.23.

The bottom line is that Andersons' core earnings rebuild remains on track, but the third quarter marked a sequential cooling and leaned meaningfully on tax credits. The HLCP acquisition makes the earnings base bigger and more leveraged. It also makes the company more dependent on carbon-credit policy. Investors are no longer just underwriting a cyclical recovery; they are underwriting management's ability to integrate a large low-carbon ethanol platform while 45Z and 45Q remain intact.

This earnings review was originally published on Earnings Whispers.

This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Earnings Whispers and its staff may hold positions in the securities mentioned. It is AI-assisted, based on proprietary Earnings Whispers data and company reports, and edited by Earnings Whispers staff.