TC Energy Beats And Raises, But Its Bigger Five-Year Growth Plan Brings More Execution Risk

TC Energy delivered a clean beat and paired it with its most expansive outlook in years. The open question is whether investors will reward a growth story that now depends on more capital and a broader risk profile. On Earnings Whispers' normalized basis, the pipeline operator earned $0.67 per share on revenue of $2.88 billion. That topped the $0.64 consensus by 4.7% and revenue expectations of $2.79 billion by 3.2%. Earnings grew 19.6% year over year and revenue rose 7.1%. The company reports in Canadian dollars, which explains why the normalized figures differ from its own numbers. It reported comparable EPS of C$0.94, up from C$0.77, and comparable EBITDA of C$3.0 billion, up 13%. GAAP net income per share rose to C$0.98 from C$0.78, so the improvement is not merely a product of adjustments.

The quality of the quarter is generally strong, with the growth concentrated in a few segments:

• **U.S. Natural Gas Pipelines:** Comparable EBITDA rose 17% to C$1.25 billion, driven by rate settlements, storage and park-and-loan revenue, and new assets.
• **Power and Energy Solutions:** EBITDA jumped 35% on Bruce Power's Unit 3 return and 96.6% availability.
• **Canadian and Mexican gas pipelines:** These grew more modestly, at 4% and 7%.

The EBITDA growth rate has been steady rather than accelerating: 14% in Q1, 12% in Q2 and 13% in Q3. Volumes support the trend, with Canadian deliveries up 6%, U.S. flows up 3% and Mexico flows up 8%.

There are a few blemishes:

• **Operating cash flow:** It fell to C$1.78 billion from C$1.92 billion. Comparable funds from operations, by contrast, jumped 25% to C$2.24 billion, which points to working-capital timing.
• **Below-the-line support:** Interest income and other items fell sharply from the prior year.

The real story was the guidance reset. Management lifted 2026 comparable EBITDA guidance to C$11.8 to C$12.0 billion. That range stood at C$11.6 to C$11.8 billion earlier in the year, and in Q2 management had only targeted the upper end. The new 2027 outlook of C$12.3 to C$12.5 billion sits well above the C$11.7 to C$11.9 billion framed at the 2024 Investor Day. The company also extended its outlook to 2031 with a 5% to 7% EBITDA compound annual growth rate.

Several metrics now underpin that outlook:

• **Origination pipeline:** It doubled to more than C$40 billion, up from roughly C$12 billion at the end of last year. About C$15 billion of it is Canadian power.
• **Sanctioned capital:** Year-to-date sanctioned projects reached about C$6 billion at a 6.5x build multiple, hitting the low end of the C$6 to C$8 billion goal.
• **New projects:** These include the US$1.8 billion Crossroads expansion and the companion American Midwest project, both aimed at Midwest data-center and power demand under 20-year take-or-pay contracts. Coastal GasLink Phase 2 adds capacity with TC's equity capped near C$250 million.

Management described itself as never more confident, and the evidence largely supports that tone.

Bears still have legitimate ammunition. The annual capex envelope steps up to C$8 to C$10 billion from C$6 to C$7 billion, and 2027 gross capex is guided to C$6.7 to C$7.2 billion. Several other items cut against the bullish read:

• **Dependence on new projects:** The upper end of the growth range depends on converting origination into sanctioned work. Roughly 15% conversion is needed just for the midpoint.
• **Thinner pending bucket:** Pending approvals slipped to about C$6 billion from C$7 billion as projects converted.
• **Slipping in-service volumes:** Capital expected in service in 2026 has drifted from about C$4 billion to C$3.4 billion.
• **Power strategy shift:** Behind-the-meter assets and contracts as short as 10 years are now on the table, a notable shift from management's stance late last year.
• **Open regulatory and supply questions:** The NGTL framework beyond 2029 remains unresolved, U.S. political change adds permitting uncertainty, and equipment and labor availability is tightening.

On the other side, expected 2026 exit leverage of 4.55x to 4.6x leaves room under the 4.75x target. AI-driven capacity management adds a modest earnings tailwind, about C$65 million so far this year.

The market setup is more complicated than the beat implies. Shares opened at $70.00 after the July report and have since fallen 10.6% to $62.61. They bottomed at $57.21 in late September, rebounded about 9% off that low, and sit roughly 2% below the 200-day moving average of $63.84. Investor sentiment remained positive but weakened meaningfully, falling from 0.47 to 0.20 heading into the report. The trend readings are mixed: the price trend is still negative, while momentum and AVWAP have turned positive, consistent with the recovery off the September low.

The bottom line is that TC Energy gave investors a raised 2026 outlook, a 2027 bar well above prior targets and a credible 5% to 7% growth runway through 2031, backed by a doubled origination pipeline and contracted, regulated cash flows. The quarter itself was solid rather than spectacular. What has changed is the scale of the ambition: more capital, a larger power push and greater reliance on project conversion. Cooler sentiment and a stock still below its July level suggest investors want proof that the bigger plan can be executed without diluting the low-risk profile that defines the company.

Read our earnings preview for TC Energy Corporation: https://www.earningswhispers.com/article/TRP/22201

This earnings review was originally published on Earnings Whispers.

This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Earnings Whispers and its staff may hold positions in the securities mentioned. It is AI-assisted, based on proprietary Earnings Whispers data and company reports, and edited by Earnings Whispers staff.