Hertz Posts Its Best EBITDA In Three Years, Then Slashes The Outlook That Mattered More

Hertz's third quarter produced a headline in line with expectations and a forward outlook that falls well short of them. On Earnings Whispers' normalized basis, the company earned $0.11 per share, matching the $0.11 consensus, while revenue of $2.617 billion beat estimates by 0.7% and grew 5.6% year over year. Earnings fell 8.3% from a year ago. The figures differ by basis: Hertz reported adjusted diluted EPS of $0.14, flat year over year, and GAAP diluted EPS of $0.20. Whichever measure investors use, the quarter itself was not the main story. Management missed its own Q3 Adjusted Corporate EBITDA guidance, cut its fourth-quarter and full-year outlook sharply, and replaced its long-standing $1 billion 2027 EBITDA target with a $500-800 million range. That gap between a respectable print and a weaker forward picture is the central tension.

The quality of the quarter deserves scrutiny. Adjusted Corporate EBITDA of $233 million rose 15% and was the best in three years. However, the $275-325 million guide issued in August implied at least $275 million, so the result fell more than $40 million short of the low end. Adjusted net income rose 26% to $67 million, but adjusted EPS was flat because diluted shares jumped to 475 million from 364 million. GAAP net income fell to $116 million from $184 million. The comparison is distorted on both sides. The prior-year quarter included a $154 million legal settlement gain and a $39 million asset-sale gain. This year's quarter benefited from a $19 million warrant fair-value gain and a $29 million tax benefit. Cash generation weakened clearly: adjusted free cash flow was negative $38 million versus positive $248 million a year ago, and trailing-twelve-month Adjusted Corporate EBITDA remains negative at $29 million.

The operating picture splits by geography.

• **U.S. core:** Americas adjusted EBITDA rose 23%. U.S. core RPD climbed about 8% even though TSA volumes fell 2.8%. The U.S. spread between RPD and adjusted DOE per day widened by more than $2.50.
• **International:** Adjusted EBITDA fell 9%, RPD slipped, and depreciation per unit jumped 7% on softer residuals. Management said the segment ran roughly $30 million below plan.
• **Costs:** Collision and maintenance costs ran $15-20 million over plan, and management expects repair costs to stay elevated.

The momentum is slowing on several fronts:

• Revenue growth decelerated to 5.6% from 10% in Q2 and 11% in Q1.
• RPD growth eased to roughly 5% from 9%.
• Growth in the RPD-to-DOE spread slowed to about 5% from 17%.

Pricing is still positive, but its lift is fading at the same time costs are rising.

The guidance reset is what changes the investment setup:

• **Q4 2026:** Adjusted Corporate EBITDA of negative $50 million to negative $100 million.
• **Full-year 2026:** That implies roughly $50-100 million, versus the $225-275 million guided just one quarter ago.
• **Year-end liquidity:** About $800 million after a $200 million December bond repayment, down from $1.0-1.4 billion projected in Q2 and more than $1.5 billion in Q1.
• **2027:** EBITDA of $500-800 million, which management framed as roughly cash-flow breakeven.
• **Fleet:** Fleet and transaction days are now expected to shrink rather than grow modestly.

Non-vehicle debt has risen to about $5.95 billion, and management offered no update on 2028-29 maturities. Bears have legitimate ammunition. The tone shifted from Q2's 'inflection point' confidence to an acknowledgment that the turnaround would not be linear.

There are real offsets:

• **Oro:** The mobility venture secured an $80 million outside investment, is tracking toward roughly $600 million of 2026 revenue, and launched autonomous-vehicle depot operations for Uber's robotaxi program in the Bay Area. Hertz retains majority economic ownership.
• **Franchising:** The first franchise conversion, covering the Czech Republic and Slovakia, was signed. Management cited potential for more than $500 million of conversion proceeds in 2027, which is not included in the EBITDA guide.
• **Demand and service:** Holiday bookings are up 16% for Thanksgiving and 7% for the year-end period. October delivered the highest global NPS in more than six years.

These are credible sources of optionality, but they are not yet earnings. The Oro fleet strategy is also under review, and a new minority-interest line begins in Q4.

The market setup is more complicated than the in-line print implies. Shares rose 24.2% from the $1.82 open after the August report to $2.26 heading into this release. They remain 39.3% below the 200-day moving average of $3.73 and 23.3% below the inter-earnings high of $2.95, set just a week after the prior report. Pre-report investor sentiment improved to -0.19 from -0.32 but stayed negative, so expectations were cautious rather than bullish. The trend readings are mixed, with momentum positive while AVWAP remains negative. A recovery off August lows has left the stock sitting in the middle of its range rather than signaling a decisive rerating.

The bottom line is that Hertz showed its U.S. pricing engine works, but the quarter's real news was a guidance reset. Missing its own EBITDA guide, nearly wiping out projected 2026 EBITDA, shrinking the liquidity cushion, and halving the ambition for 2027 shifts the debate from how fast the turnaround compounds to whether the balance sheet can carry it. Oro and franchise proceeds offer upside, but investors now need evidence that costs and international results stabilize before the turnaround narrative can regain credibility.

Read our earnings preview for Hertz Global Holdings, Inc.: https://www.earningswhispers.com/article/HTZ/22116

This earnings review was originally published on Earnings Whispers.

This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Earnings Whispers and its staff may hold positions in the securities mentioned. It is AI-assisted, based on proprietary Earnings Whispers data and company reports, and edited by Earnings Whispers staff.