Black Hills Beats Handily, But The Google Deal Matters More Than The Quarter As 2026 Guidance Holds Steady

Black Hills Corporation (NYSE: BKH) delivered a clean third-quarter beat. Adjusted EPS came in at $0.57, against a $0.42 consensus and a $0.45 Earnings Whisper number, a 26.7% surprise. Earnings grew 26.7% year over year and revenue rose 8.3% to $466.1 million. The quarter itself, however, is the smaller story. Black Hills signed definitive agreements with Google on Sept. 30, turning a long-negotiated data center opportunity into roughly $2.5 billion of generation and transmission investment that sits outside the current plan. Management still only reaffirmed 2026 guidance of $4.25 to $4.45. That is the central tension: a step-change in the long-term growth runway, with no change yet to the near-term numbers investors can underwrite.

The beat was mostly built on regulatory execution. New rates and rider recovery added $0.15 per share year over year. Weather added another $0.06, helped by cooling degree days that ran 28% above normal across the electric territories. Excluding that weather tailwind, results would still have cleared consensus, but the size of the beat deserves some discount. GAAP EPS rose to $0.54 from $0.34, flattered by lower merger costs of $0.03 per share versus $0.10 a year ago. The cost side was manageable. Depreciation rose $4.7 million, interest expense edged up only modestly, and operations and maintenance grew about 2%. Dilution is a real headwind, though. Diluted shares rose to 76.4 million from 72.9 million, and at-the-market equity issuance of roughly $70 million sits at the top of the $50-70 million guide.

The operating data shows where growth is actually coming from: Wyoming. Wyoming Electric revenue climbed to $87.1 million from $68.6 million, and volumes jumped to 857 GWh from 660 GWh. Electric industrial volumes rose 20%, driven by large-load customers under the LPCS and BCIS tariffs. Transmission revenue nearly doubled to $20.8 million. Cheyenne set a new peak of 439 MW, 16% above last year's peak. Electric operating income rose $14.5 million while gas added $4.2 million. Earnings momentum remains strong, but it is not accelerating in a straight line. Q2's jump from $0.38 to $0.54 was proportionally larger than Q3's gain, and Q1 declined on weather.

The Google contract runs through 2048 and has three main pieces:

• $1.8 billion for 564 MW of company-owned gas generation, held in a non-regulated affiliate that earns a cash return during construction starting mid-2027.
• Microgrid management fees on about 2.1 GW of third-party resources, beginning in late 2027.
• Management expects about $150 million of net income in 2030 and roughly $2.4 billion of unlevered free cash flow over the contract term.

CPCNs are also pending for the $606 million Aeolus and $80 million South Cheyenne transmission projects. Recovery would come from large-load customers through the proposed LCTCAM tariff, with a decision expected in the first quarter of 2027. Behind Google, the pipeline was replenished: 600 MW remains in negotiation, and a newly disclosed exploratory tier of more than 2.5 GW includes Microsoft's 3,200-acre land purchase. Management's tone shifted from the cautious "do it right, not fast" framing of earlier calls to "firing on all cylinders."

Bears still have legitimate ammunition:

• **Merger timing:** The NorthWestern merger awaits a Montana decision, now due Nov. 12 after repeated delays, with open questions over Colstrip and data center allocation.
• **Financing:** Heavy capex will require debt and equity while the company holds FFO-to-debt at 14-15%, and a $400 million refinancing is due in January 2027.
• **Visibility:** Google's load ramp and fee split are confidential, which clouds the 2027-2029 earnings path.
• **Post-2030 profile:** Earnings from the Google assets fade after 2030 as they depreciate.
• **Customer slippage:** Meta's service start slipped from 2026 to early 2027.

The market has already moved toward the bull narrative. Investor sentiment swung decisively, from a slightly negative -0.10 after the August report to a solidly positive +0.57. Shares were at $84.19 as of the Nov. 4 snapshot, up 15.3% from the $73.00 open following the prior report and about 14.5% above the 200-day moving average of $73.52. The stock enters the post-report period with expectations reset higher. That makes the February 2027-2031 plan update, which will incorporate the Google project, the next real test.

The bottom line is that Black Hills delivered a strong, rate-driven quarter, with some weather help, and more importantly converted its data center ambitions into contracted economics. Upper-half growth within the 4-6% target looks credible, and the Google deal and expanding pipeline imply upside beyond it. Still, guidance is unchanged, the merger is unresolved, and financing needs are rising. With sentiment and the share price both having already rerated, the burden now shifts to the February plan to quantify what the market has started to anticipate.

Read our earnings preview for Black Hills Corporation: https://www.earningswhispers.com/article/BKH/22775

This earnings review was originally published on Earnings Whispers.

This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Earnings Whispers and its staff may hold positions in the securities mentioned. It is AI-assisted, based on proprietary Earnings Whispers data and company reports, and edited by Earnings Whispers staff.