Sonida Misses On EPS As CHP Scale Lifts Revenue, But Sequential Softening And 8.1x Leverage Complicate Its Growth Story

Sonida Senior Living's third quarter produced a mixed result. Earnings missed, revenue beat, and the operating platform kept improving on a year-over-year basis while losing some sequential momentum. Earnings Whispers recorded a loss of $0.65 per share against a consensus loss of $0.52, a 25.0% miss. Revenue of $210.2 million topped the $192.85 million consensus by 9.0%. The loss still narrowed sharply from a year ago, with earnings improving 58.3%, and revenue grew 114.4%. That growth comes almost entirely from the CHP merger, which closed in March and more than doubled the asset base. The central tension is that the combined company's occupancy and margins look healthy, but leverage is drifting away from target, shareholders are being diluted, and several sequential metrics slipped.

The quality of the quarter deserves scrutiny. On a GAAP basis, the release shows a net loss to common shareholders of $34.3 million, or $0.72 per share. That is a deeper per-share loss than the Earnings Whispers figure, so the reported loss depends on the basis used. The GAAP loss was weighed down by:

• $43.1 million of depreciation and amortization;
• $11.8 million of stock-based compensation, nearly all of it tied to the CHP merger;
• $9.5 million of transaction and transition costs;
• a $4.4 million loss on debt extinguishment from refinancing the bridge facility.

Normalized FFO was $0.46 per share, down from $0.48 in the second quarter. Adjusted EBITDA of $46.8 million rose 26.2% from the pro forma prior-year figure but fell from roughly $50 million sequentially, partly because of G&A investment in the integration. The share count also matters. Weighted shares rose to 47.6 million from 18.1 million a year ago, so absolute dollars of growth translate far less efficiently per share. Nine-month operating cash flow was essentially zero, compared with $24.8 million a year earlier, though merger-related deferred income swings contributed.

The operating story remains constructive. Same-store occupancy reached 88.6%, up from 87.8% in the second quarter and 87.2% in the first. The share of same-store communities above 90% occupancy rose to 58% from 54%. Same-store SHOP NOI grew 15.6% on a pro forma basis, and the same-store margin of 31.8% was 230 basis points higher than a year ago. Beneath that, several trends cooled:

• Same-store NOI growth slowed from 16.9% in the second quarter.
• RevPOR growth eased to 4.6% from 4.9%.
• The year-over-year occupancy gain narrowed to 200 basis points from 240.
• The same-store margin slipped 80 basis points sequentially.
• Labor rose to 41.3% of revenue.
• The spread between RevPOR and expense growth narrowed to 350 basis points from 410.

Management attributed much of the sequential slippage to seasonality. Analysts nonetheless flagged the deceleration, and it is a fair concern.

Growth investors will focus on the external expansion, which accelerated sharply. Sonida has acquired seven communities since the CHP close for $150.2 million, about $242,000 per unit, and has another $98 million under contract. That puts acquisition deployment at roughly $250 million for 2026, the fastest pace in company history. Other developments on the call:

• Sonida acquired a Southeast regional operator.
• It signed a letter of intent for a minority stake in a second CHP operator that carries third-party management fees.
• The CHP integration advanced to 19 of 54 communities transitioned, with the first 14 posting 33% NOI growth.
• The new $380 million Ally term loan was priced 80 basis points inside the prior loan.

Bears have legitimate ammunition, however:

• Net leverage rose to 8.1x from 7.8x, against a 6x to 6.5x target.
• The weighted average interest rate climbed to 5.78% from 5.43%.
• Some new acquisitions carry going-in cap rates of just 3% to 5%, and some are cash-flow negative.
• Eleven CHP communities still lack a resolution, and management expects the remaining transitions to deliver more moderate growth.
• Formal guidance is deferred until fourth-quarter results.

Funding is also a live issue. ATM sales have been priced progressively lower, from $41.05 in July to $40.74 in the third quarter and $37.25 in October.

Investor sentiment shifted markedly heading into the report. It fell from a solidly positive 0.46 after the August release to slightly negative at -0.07, a swing large enough to signal a genuine reset in expectations. Price action tells a similar story. Shares opened at $38.66 after the prior report and briefly spiked to $44.05 the next day. They then slid to an inter-earnings low of $32.48 in late October before recovering to $37.01, which is down 4.3% since the prior report and just 1.6% above the 200-day moving average. Earnings Whispers trend readings are mixed, with price trend and AVWAP negative and momentum positive. Overall, the stock gave back its entire post-August surge.

The bottom line is that Sonida is executing well operationally but leaning harder on debt and equity to fund growth. Occupancy gains, margin expansion and early CHP transition results support a credible growth story, and the revenue beat reflects the scale of the combined platform. The EPS miss, sequential declines in FFO and EBITDA, slowing same-store growth, rising leverage and ongoing ATM dilution explain why investor enthusiasm cooled before the report. Fourth-quarter results and the first formal 2027 guidance will need to show that the acquisition pace translates into per-share earnings growth and a credible path back toward the leverage target.

Read our earnings preview for Sonida Senior Living, Inc.: https://www.earningswhispers.com/article/SNDA/22184

This earnings review was originally published on Earnings Whispers.

This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Earnings Whispers and its staff may hold positions in the securities mentioned. It is AI-assisted, based on proprietary Earnings Whispers data and company reports, and edited by Earnings Whispers staff.