FIGS Beats And Raises For A Fourth Straight Call, But A Jordan Supply Squeeze Caps Near-Term Upside

FIGS delivered another clean beat-and-raise for the third quarter. Earnings were $0.10 per share versus the $0.07 consensus and the $0.09 Earnings Whisper number, an 11.1% surprise. That was double the year-ago result, up 100.0%. Revenue of $190.69 million beat the consensus by 5.2% and grew 25.7%, the company's fourth straight quarter above 25%. Management raised full-year guidance for the fourth consecutive call. That is the central tension: management says demand is 'far outstripping supply,' and the constraint on FIGS is now inventory rather than customers. The Jordan import restriction caused stock-outs late in the quarter. Its impact is expected to peak in Q4 and linger into the first half of 2027, just as the stock trades near its highs.

The quality of the quarter holds up well. GAAP net income more than doubled to $19.3 million, a 10.1% net margin versus 5.8% a year ago. Unlike earlier in the year, Q3 had no tariff-refund benefit flattering results; the $7.9 million refund was recognized in a prior quarter. The margin story was operating leverage rather than gross margin:

• Gross margin slipped 60 basis points to 69.3%, reflecting tough returns-processing comparisons and higher inventory reserves.
• Operating expenses fell to 57.6% of revenue from 63.6%, with leverage across selling, marketing and G&A.
• Operating margin reached roughly 11.6%.
• Adjusted EBITDA margin hit 16.5%, up 410 basis points and well above the roughly 14% management had guided.

Cash generation was striking. Year-to-date free cash flow was $89.8 million versus negative $5.1 million a year earlier, and cash and investments reached a record $331 million despite $46.6 million in buybacks.

The customer metrics explain why management sounded more confident:

• Active customer growth accelerated for a fourth straight quarter, to 14.3% (3.2 million customers).
• Average order value rose 10.5% to $126, helped by pricing, mix, and lower discount and return rates.
• Net revenue per active customer hit a record $236, up from $229 in Q2.
• Non-scrubwear grew 34.6%, and international grew 51.4%.

Bears do have some ammunition on trajectory. Total growth eased from 29% in Q2 to 26%. International slowed sharply from 67% to 51%, and U.S. growth edged down from 22% to 21%. The Q4 outlook of roughly 15% implies a further step down. That guide was raised from about 10%, but it laps 33% growth and is heavily back-weighted.

The catalyst list lengthened:

• The Vcoterie acquisition relaunched as 'the Charmacy' and sold out its initial assortment, building a waitlist of roughly 10,000.
• TEAMS added Bupa Dental Care (about 400 UK centers) and European Wax Center (about 1,000 U.S. locations), with TEAMS growth outpacing the company.
• Competitor Scrubs & Beyond is closing more than 100 U.S. stores, which management framed as a share opportunity.
• FIGS signed a collaboration with OGG/AugHealth.
• Four community hubs open in Q4, with more planned for 2027.

The risk ledger is concrete, however. Inventory is down 20% year over year to $121.3 million, limiting the ability to capture demand. Replacement capacity in Vietnam carries slightly higher duty and fabric costs, plus freight and air-freight pressure. Q4 selling expense is guided higher on supplier-transition costs. Most importantly for 2027 modeling, roughly 250 basis points of this year's gross margin comes from one-time tariff refunds. The CFO framed normalized 2027 gross margin near 67.5%, below the ~69.9% now guided for 2026.

Investor sentiment improved meaningfully but not dramatically. It moved from essentially neutral (-0.01) to modestly positive (+0.15), so expectations rose without becoming euphoric. Price action is far more emphatic. Shares at $21.94 are up 44.3% since the open after the August report. They sit 61% above the 200-day moving average and just 2.3% below a 52-week high of $22.46 set on November 2. The path was volatile: the stock fell to $11.81 in late September before nearly doubling into the print. Most Earnings Whispers trend readings are positive, with sequential growth neutral. That neutral reading fits a quarter in which demand improved while reported growth cooled modestly.

This leaves a market setup more complicated than the surprise implies. The stock entered the report pricing in a good deal of the beat-and-raise cadence. Upside from here likely depends less on demand, which looks robust, than on how quickly FIGS rebuilds inventory and how much gross-margin normalization the 2027 plan can absorb through continued expense leverage.

The bottom line is that FIGS turned in a high-quality quarter. Accelerating customer growth, record per-customer spending, sharp operating leverage and surging cash flow justified yet another guidance increase. The near-term story has shifted from whether demand is real to whether supply can keep up. Stock-outs through mid-2027, a tariff-refund comparison headwind and a stock trading near its highs mean execution on the Vietnam transition now matters as much as the brand's momentum.

Read our earnings preview for FIGS, Inc.: https://www.earningswhispers.com/article/FIGS/22283

This earnings review was originally published on Earnings Whispers.

This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Earnings Whispers and its staff may hold positions in the securities mentioned. It is AI-assisted, based on proprietary Earnings Whispers data and company reports, and edited by Earnings Whispers staff.