Algonquin Tops Estimates On Weather-Aided Adjusted Earnings, But GAAP Decline And Sticky Costs Keep The Turnaround A Show-Me Story

Algonquin Power & Utilities (NYSE: AQN) delivered a clean headline beat for the third quarter. Adjusted EPS of $0.11 topped the $0.10 consensus by 10.0% and grew 22.2% year over year. Revenue of $642.5 million exceeded the $630.0 million estimate by 2.0% and rose 10.3%. The adjusted result also marked a real change in trajectory. Second-quarter adjusted EPS was flat at 4 cents and first-quarter adjusted EPS fell a penny to 13 cents, so this was the first quarter of genuine year-over-year adjusted growth in 2026. It lifted year-to-date adjusted net earnings to $216.9 million from $211.6 million, after the company had been trailing the prior year through June. The central tension is that the improvement leans heavily on weather and on what management excludes. The GAAP picture moved the other way.

The quality of the beat deserves scrutiny. Net earnings from continuing operations fell to $57.6 million, or $0.07 per share, from $71.0 million, or $0.09. The Regulated Services Group's earnings dropped to $72.6 million from $103.6 million. Within that segment, the biggest tailwind was $20.4 million of favorable weather at Empire, which is not a repeatable driver. New rates contributed $11.4 million, including CalPeco and the Empire Missouri tranche implemented in August. Those gains were overwhelmed by three headwinds:

• $21.8 million of higher interest expense tied to June's Liberty Utilities senior note offering;
• $10.5 million of higher operating and depreciation costs;
• $35.4 million of one-time items, led by $16.6 million of Mountain View Fire costs and an $8.3 million loss on the Suralis assets.

The Corporate Group's loss narrowed to $17.1 million from $35.9 million after $1.15 billion of holdco debt was repaid. Much of that improvement reflects interest cost moving from the corporate level to the utility level rather than disappearing. Restructuring costs of $7.7 million and fire-related charges were again excluded from adjusted results. Through nine months, those two items alone account for more than $70 million of exclusions.

The call framed this as a steady execution quarter, and on that score management largely delivered on what it promised in August:

• The Missouri Large Load Tariff was filed.
• FERC granted CWIP and abandonment incentives for Empire's SPP transmission projects.
• The long-pending Litchfield Park rate case closed with a 9.4% ROE and a formula rate mechanism.
• The Suralis stake was sold for $126 million, with its debt deconsolidated.
• New rate cases were filed in Oklahoma and New Hampshire.
• Guidance was reaffirmed at 35-37 cents for 2026 and 38-42 cents for 2027, with no equity issuance expected through 2027.

What was missing was any upward revision. The 2027 range, cut earlier in the year on a higher tax rate, has not been restored. With 28 cents of adjusted EPS banked through September, the full-year range leaves a modest fourth-quarter bar.

The cost side remains the weak link. Year-to-date gas operating expenses are up $24.8 million, and total opex plus depreciation is up roughly $29 million. Visible progress toward the low-to-mid-30% O&M-to-revenue target from about 36% last year is limited, with CalPeco wildfire insurance accruals inflating costs. Several other risks remain open:

• **Missouri:** An incremental $13.7 million revenue tranche is still under negotiation with no timing.
• **Data centers:** The large-load opportunity has no disclosed customer commitments yet, so it is an option rather than a forecast.
• **Credit:** FFO-to-debt improved to 12.2% from 11.9% in the second quarter, but remains below the first quarter's 12.9% and only modestly above the roughly 11% downgrade threshold.
• **Redomicile:** The U.S. move remains on track for the first half of 2027, with a quantified 2-3 cent annual EPS benefit. It still requires shareholder and regulatory approvals and carries an undisclosed one-time exit tax.

Investor sentiment entering the report was already constructive and improved further, rising from 0.55 to 0.63. That is a meaningful but not dramatic shift. Price action tells a more cautious story. As of November 5, ahead of the report, shares at $5.64 were essentially unchanged from the $5.63 open after the August report. They remained about 5% below the 200-day moving average of $5.94. The stock nevertheless traveled a long way to get nowhere. It hit a 52-week low of $4.91 on September 29, then rallied nearly 15% off that trough into earnings. It sits about 4% below the inter-earnings high of $5.89 set in mid-August. That rebound suggests some of the steady-execution narrative was already being priced in before the beat arrived.

The bottom line is that Algonquin produced the adjusted beat and the strategic box-checking investors wanted. However, the quarter's growth was flattered by weather and accompanied by falling GAAP earnings, rising interest costs, and stubborn operating expenses. The simplification story is credible and moving on schedule. The earnings power behind it still depends on rate-case wins and cost discipline that have not fully shown up. Until guidance moves higher or the large-load and Missouri catalysts turn into concrete revenue, bears retain legitimate ammunition.

Read our earnings preview for Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp.: https://www.earningswhispers.com/article/AQN/22542

This earnings review was originally published on Earnings Whispers.

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