IAMGOLD Beats On Earnings, But Cote Slips To The Low End As The Royalty Buyback Becomes The Real Story

IAMGOLD reported third-quarter adjusted earnings of $0.42 per share, ahead of the $0.36 consensus by 16.7%. Adjusted EPS grew 40.0% from a year ago, and revenue of $856.5 million rose 21.2%. The beat is real, but the year-over-year comparison mostly reflects gold prices. The realized price was $4,277 per ounce versus $3,492 a year earlier, while attributable sales volume slipped to 183,100 ounces from 186,700. Sequentially, the picture is flatter. Revenue was essentially unchanged from the second quarter's $856.9 million and remained below the first quarter's roughly $1 billion, as the realized price eased from $4,384 in Q2 and about $4,850 in Q1. The central tension is that IAMGOLD is producing excellent cash while its flagship growth asset, Côté, keeps drifting toward the weak end of its targets.

The quality of the quarter deserves some scrutiny. GAAP EPS of $0.52 was flattered by a $69.5 million gain on the Bambadji sale, which management excluded from the adjusted figure. Income tax expense jumped 187% to $127.5 million on higher Essakane income, larger withholding taxes on intercompany dividends and a reduction in deferred tax assets. The cash flow, however, was strong:

• Mine-site free cash flow reached $404.3 million.
• Operating cash flow was $461.1 million.
• The balance sheet swung from $228.1 million of net debt at year-end to $317.6 million of net cash, excluding leases.
• Liquidity rose to about $1.6 billion, up from roughly $1.35 billion in Q2.

Essakane did the heavy lifting with $271.1 million of mine-site free cash flow. Westwood contributed $51.7 million on higher-grade underground ore.

Côté is where the guidance erosion is concentrated:

• **Production:** 92,000 ounces on a 100% basis, down from 96,200 in Q2 and 106,000 a year ago.
• **Recoveries:** fell to 90% on Vertimill downtime.
• **Costs:** all-in sustaining cost including royalties rose 29% year over year to $2,056 per ounce.
• **Guidance:** management now expects Côté output at the lower end of its 390,000-440,000-ounce range, after calling the mine 'well on track' last quarter. Cash costs excluding royalties are now expected above the top of the $900-$1,050 range, versus near the top end previously.
• **Mining costs:** $4.77 per tonne, still well above the roughly $4 exit target.

The offset is operational evidence that the turnaround is gaining traction. September throughput averaged 37,100 tonnes per day, above the 36,000-tpd nameplate, in the first full quarter without contractor crushing. Milling costs fell to $15.36 per tonne that month, effectively hitting the year-end $15 target early. Management is leaning on a higher-grade, higher-throughput fourth quarter, and the call indicated October trends continued. Bears still have legitimate ammunition: the full-year Côté number now depends on Q4 delivering.

The most consequential development was strategic rather than operational. IAMGOLD exercised its right to repurchase half of Franco-Nevada's 7.5% gross margin royalty on Côté for roughly $525 million, and it will fund Sumitomo's share as well. That lowers IAMGOLD's effective royalty burden to 2.14% from January 2027. On the call, management tied the deal to roughly $150 per ounce of Côté cash-cost relief. Last quarter this was only under evaluation; it is now a committed structural improvement.

Other items add optionality:

• An updated Côté-Gosselin mine plan is due this quarter, with a path to about 40,000 tpd.
• A new buyback authorization of up to about 10% of shares is being sought, and a dividend is contemplated for 2027.
• A gold-bearing sludge discovery at Westwood could add gold in Q4 outside guidance. The company's 30,000-ounce figure is explicitly illustrative, not an estimate.

Risks are also growing:

• Consolidated all-in sustaining cost including royalties is now expected to exceed the top of guidance, with royalties running $45 per ounce above plan.
• Essakane sustaining capital was lifted to $195 million from $165 million on added waste stripping; the call characterized it as roughly $200 million.
• Burkina Faso's local-refining order is covered only by a temporary exemption.
• Security remains a persistent overhang.

Investor sentiment moved decisively the wrong way despite the beat. The Earnings Whispers reading swung from a positive 0.24 at the prior report to -0.11. That is a meaningful shift suggesting investors are focused on Côté's slippage and cost creep rather than the earnings surprise. The stock tells a similar mixed story. At $17.50, shares are up 12.7% from the open after the August report but remain about 4.5% below the 200-day moving average of $18.32. They also sit close to the $17.58 average price IAMGOLD paid for buybacks during the quarter, so the company has effectively been a buyer at current levels while the market withholds a premium.

The bottom line is that IAMGOLD's quarter was stronger on cash and capital allocation than on operations. The earnings beat, net-cash balance sheet and self-funded royalty buyback materially improve the 2027 setup. Côté's slide to the low end of production guidance and above its cost range keeps the execution question open. The fourth quarter now carries outsized weight, and the updated Côté mine plan is the next test of whether the turnaround story can outrun the guidance erosion.

Read our earnings preview for IAMGOLD Corporation: https://www.earningswhispers.com/article/IAG/22307

This earnings review was originally published on Earnings Whispers.

This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Earnings Whispers and its staff may hold positions in the securities mentioned. It is AI-assisted, based on proprietary Earnings Whispers data and company reports, and edited by Earnings Whispers staff.