Expedia Gears Up to Post Q1 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

Expedia Group EXPE is scheduled to report its first-quarter 2025 results on May 8.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for EXPE’s first-quarter 2025 revenues is currently pegged at $3.03 billion, indicating a 4.76% increase from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

The consensus mark for earnings is pinned at 42 cents per share, which has been revised downward by 2 cents over the past 30 days. The figure suggests a 100% increase from the year-ago reported figure.

EXPE surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in each of the trailing four quarters, with an average surprise of 45.86%.

Expedia Group, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Expedia Group, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Expedia Group, Inc. Quote

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Let us see how things are shaping up for the upcoming announcement.

Factors to Consider

Expedia Group’s performance in the first quarter of 2025 is expected to have been shaped by international demand, strategic investments, and continued cost discipline.

The company guided for gross bookings growth of 4% to 6% and revenue growth of 3% to 5%, factoring in a two-point foreign exchange headwind and the Easter shift. Excluding these, underlying growth is expected to have been 7% to 9%. Bookings saw some softening compared to the fourth quarter of 2024 due to strong holiday promotions in late 2024 that might have pulled demand forward, though overall travel demand remained stable.

Vrbo’s growth momentum is likely to have continued into the quarter, supported by expanded urban inventory and improved supply quality. Brand Expedia is expected to have benefited from merchandising actions in air and package products, which would have driven incremental bookings without additional marketing costs. Hotels.com is expected to have returned to modest growth, aided by improving international trends and recovery from earlier disruptions.

Expedia’s B2B segment, which represented 27% of total bookings in 2024, is expected to have remained strong, especially in APAC, driven by existing partner growth and new product initiatives. The company continued to deepen relationships and expand unique inventory to support partner performance.

Advertising revenues, which grew 25% in the fourth quarter, are likely to have remained a key top-line contributor. Growth is expected to have been supported by increased advertiser participation, product innovation, and strong returns, positioning advertising as a high-margin, scalable business for the company.

Adjusted EBITDA margins for the first quarter are expected to have remained flat to slightly up year over year. This reflects sustained overhead and marketing efficiency, although the first quarter is traditionally the company’s lowest margin period. The impact of cost-saving actions taken in 2024 is expected to have continued to support profitability despite seasonality and FX-related pressures.

What Our Model Says for EXPE

Per the Zacks model, the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is exactly the case here.

EXPE currently has an Earnings ESP of +14.86% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are some other companies worth considering, as our model shows that these also have the right combination of elements to beat earnings in their upcoming releases:

Carvana CVNA currently has an Earnings ESP of +4.89% and sports a Zacks Rank #1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Carvana shares have gained 27.6% in the year-to-date (YTD) period. CVNA is slated to report its first-quarter 2025 results on May 7.

MercadoLibre MELI has an Earnings ESP of +2.30% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

MELI shares have rallied 32.1% YTD. It is scheduled to report its first-quarter 2025 results on May 7.

SharkNinja, Inc. SN has an Earnings ESP of +7.34% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

SN shares have lost 15.3% YTD. It is scheduled to report its first-quarter 2025 results on May 8.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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