ICFI Q1 Earnings Call: Commercial Energy Growth Offsets Federal Slowdown, Guidance Maintained

Professional consulting firm ICF International (NASDAQ:ICFI) met Wall Street’s revenue expectations in Q1 CY2025, but sales fell by 1.4% year on year to $487.6 million. Its non-GAAP profit of $1.94 per share was 12.1% above analysts’ consensus estimates.

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StockStory’s Take

ICF International’s first quarter performance reflected a shift in business mix, with growth in commercial, state and local, and international government segments partially offsetting a reduction in federal government revenues. Management attributed the quarter’s results to ongoing demand for energy efficiency and electrification programs from utility clients, alongside stable trends in state and local disaster recovery and climate initiatives. CEO John Wasson noted, “Our revenues from commercial, state and local, and international government clients in aggregate accounted for 51% of first quarter revenues, up from about 45% one year ago.”

Looking ahead, management’s guidance framework for 2025 remains unchanged, reflecting continued uncertainty around federal government contract funding and new request-for-proposal (RFP) activity. The company expects commercial energy, state and local, and international government revenue to grow at least 15% this year, offsetting federal headwinds. CFO Barry Broadus emphasized maintaining profitability, stating that “we expect to maintain our adjusted EBITDA margins on 2025 revenues at levels comparable to 2024.”

Key Insights from Management’s Remarks

ICF International’s leadership identified commercial energy strength, changing federal dynamics, and disciplined cost control as key themes shaping Q1 results and the outlook for 2025.

• Commercial energy demand rising: The company reported continued expansion in utility-funded energy efficiency, electrification, and flexible load management programs, with commercial energy revenues up 21% year-over-year. This demand is supported by utilities seeking to manage rapid load growth and by regulatory support for reducing energy usage.
• Federal government headwinds: Revenues from federal clients declined 12.6% year-over-year due to contract funding curtailments, fewer new RFPs, and the impact of stop work orders and terminations. Management estimates approximately $115 million in 2025 revenues have been affected by these disruptions so far.
• State, local, and international growth: The company saw stable trends in state and local government business, with new disaster recovery contracts and ongoing climate and infrastructure work. International government revenues grew 7.2%, driven by execution on recent contract wins in the European Union and U.K.
• Business mix supports margins: The increasing share of higher-margin commercial business, greater use of fixed-price contracts, and lower subcontracting contributed to an 80-basis-point expansion in gross margin to 38%.
• AEG acquisition integration: The Applied Energy Group acquisition at the end of 2024 is progressing as planned, enhancing ICF’s technology and advisory capabilities for electric and gas utilities and providing opportunities for synergistic growth.

Drivers of Future Performance

Management’s outlook for 2025 is shaped by ongoing challenges in federal contracting, but offset by expected growth in commercial, state and local, and international markets.

• Commercial energy as growth engine: Leadership expects continued expansion in energy efficiency and electrification programs for utility clients, which are forecast to drive the majority of non-federal revenue growth.
• Federal government funding risk: Stop work orders and contract terminations are anticipated to persist, with management assuming most stop work orders will not be reinstated this year, adding ongoing uncertainty to federal revenue.
• Margin stability focus: Cost management and favorable business mix are expected to help maintain adjusted EBITDA margins at 2024 levels, even as revenue growth is pressured by the federal segment.

Top Analyst Questions

• Timothy Mulrooney (William Blair): Asked if Q2 would see peak impact from federal contract disruptions; management replied that Q2 and Q3 are likely to resemble Q1, with ongoing fluidity rather than a pronounced peak.
• Joseph Vafi (Canaccord Genuity): Queried whether commercial energy performance in Q1 sets the pace for the year; CEO John Wasson confirmed that strong growth and margins in commercial energy are expected to continue.
• Tobey Sommer (Truist Securities): Inquired about the scalability of commercial energy programs and whether clients are adopting multiple large projects; management noted ongoing pilots in flexible load management and electrification, expecting material scaling over time.
• Kevin Steinke (Barrington Research): Sought clarity on IT modernization outlook; leadership reiterated its forecast of a 5-10% revenue decline for this business in 2025, citing slower procurement but potential for renewed growth in 2026.
• Marc Riddick (Sidoti): Asked about potential upside in Health and Human Services work and acquisition plans; management pointed to opportunities in children’s health and food safety, and said future M&A would likely focus on energy-related tuck-in deals.

Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters

In upcoming quarters, the StockStory team will monitor (1) the pace of federal government contract modifications and new RFP releases, (2) whether commercial energy and state and local businesses can sustain double-digit growth, and (3) the successful integration of Applied Energy Group, including any synergistic wins. Developments in federal spending priorities and regulatory policy will be important for future performance.

ICF International currently trades at a forward P/E ratio of 12.8×. In the wake of earnings, is it a buy or sell? See for yourself in our free research report.

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