Global-E Online Ltd. (GLBE): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Global-E Online Ltd. (GLBE) on Substack by Steve Wagner. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on GLBE. Global-E Online Ltd. (GLBE)'s share was trading at $33.11 as of May 15^th. GLBE’s forward P/E was 97.09 according to Yahoo Finance.

Global-e (GLBE) began 2025 with impressive momentum, reporting 30% year-over-year revenue growth to $189.9 million in Q1, driven by $1.24 billion in GMV (+34% YoY). Despite macroeconomic challenges such as trade policy disruptions and FX headwinds, the company preserved strong gross margins at 45.4% and posted $31.6 million in adjusted EBITDA, showcasing a scalable and profitable model. Its balanced revenue mix—$84 million from service fees and $105.9 million from fulfillment—demonstrates Global-e’s vital role in cross-border commerce while effectively managing margin pressures. The company maintained a ~15% take rate even as some merchants adopted “multi-local” fulfillment strategies, and it significantly reduced its net loss year-over-year, underscoring its path to sustainable profitability.

Strategically, GLBE extended its partnership with Shopify for three more years, eliminating uncertainty over platform competition and reaffirming its critical role in Shopify’s international ambitions. Its new “3B2C” solution, allowing merchants to bulk ship into local hubs for domestic fulfillment, proved timely amid new U.S. tariffs. Enhancements to its Merchant Portal, now offering real-time analytics, further deepen merchant reliance on GLBE for global expansion. Client wins across geographies and sectors—including Subdued, VIBAe, Atlético Madrid, Bandai Namco, and T2 Tea—along with increased engagement from Adidas, highlight Global-e’s ability to attract and retain high-profile brands.

Management reaffirmed full-year guidance of $917M–$967M in revenue and $179M–$199M in EBITDA, signaling confidence in 30% growth despite a minor take rate compression. Trading in the mid-$30s, GLBE remains a high-conviction investment, with a long-term intrinsic value near $45/share backed by robust growth, margin expansion, and global relevance.

Global-E Online Ltd. (GLBE) is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 31 hedge fund portfolios held GLBE at the end of the fourth quarter which was 21 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of GLBE as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than GLBE but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.

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Disclosure: None. This article was originally published at Insider Monkey.