NVMI Q1 Earnings Call: AI Demand Drives Growth as Tariffs Introduce Marginal Headwinds

Semiconductor quality control company Nova (NASDAQ:NVMI) reported Q1 CY2025 results topping the market’s revenue expectations, with sales up 50.5% year on year to $213.4 million. Guidance for next quarter’s revenue was better than expected at $215 million at the midpoint, 1.6% above analysts’ estimates. Its non-GAAP profit of $2.18 per share was 4.4% above analysts’ consensus estimates.

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StockStory’s Take

Nova’s first quarter performance was shaped by surging demand for semiconductor process control solutions, particularly in logic and advanced packaging. Management credited the company’s growth to increased adoption of gate-all-around technology and the successful expansion of its PRISM platform, which saw record sales following further customer evaluations. President and CEO Gaby Waisman noted, “Semiconductor manufacturing capacity is in growth mode, driven by demand for AI applications,” emphasizing that Nova’s positioning across market segments and geographies contributed to its results. The quarter also included initial contributions from the Sentronics acquisition and marked a material year-over-year increase in service revenue, reflecting both operational execution and customer uptake of Nova’s technology suite.

Looking forward, Nova’s outlook is informed by ongoing AI-driven investments in semiconductor manufacturing and customer adoption of advanced process technologies. Management expects continued demand for gate-all-around and advanced packaging applications, with Waisman highlighting that business from these segments should be higher next year. CFO Guy Kizner cited stable customer investment plans despite macroeconomic and trade uncertainties, but flagged new U.S. tariffs as a factor expected to modestly reduce gross margins. Waisman cautioned that, “visibility is more challenging,” yet expressed confidence in Nova’s ability to “outperform WFE [wafer fab equipment] growth in 2025” by leveraging a diversified manufacturing footprint and ongoing product innovation.

Key Insights from Management’s Remarks

Management attributed first quarter growth to strong demand for advanced semiconductor technologies, increased market share, and successful product launches in both hardware and software.

• Gate-all-around adoption: Nova saw accelerating customer uptake of gate-all-around technology, which refers to a new transistor architecture enabling improved chip performance. This drove higher sales of both standalone and integrated metrology solutions, with management expecting continued momentum as high-volume manufacturing expands.
• PRISM platform expansion: The PRISM platform, leveraging spectral interferometry for process control in advanced packaging and leading-edge nodes, achieved record sales and completed key evaluations with major logic manufacturers. Management described PRISM as a “bestseller,” supporting applications like through-silicon via and hybrid bonding.
• Software suite growth: The company’s software business delivered record results, with customers adopting Nova’s machine learning-driven tools to address process complexity and cost challenges in advanced packaging. These solutions are increasingly valued for optimizing efficiency in complex semiconductor processes.
• Sentronics acquisition progress: Nova completed the acquisition of Sentronics, strengthening its position in chemical metrology. Although the first quarter financial impact was modest, management anticipates greater contributions in the next quarter as direct sales initiatives ramp up from the new German facility.
• Service revenue acceleration: Service revenues grew over 30% year over year, reflecting heightened tool utilization and customer reliance on Nova’s support and maintenance offerings. Management expects this area to remain a growth engine as the installed base expands.

Drivers of Future Performance

Nova’s outlook is shaped by AI-driven semiconductor demand, new product adoption, and trade-related margin pressure.

• AI and advanced packaging demand: Management foresees ongoing growth in logic and advanced packaging, driven by investments in AI-enabled chips. The company expects gate-all-around and advanced packaging revenues to climb further as industry adoption broadens and high-bandwidth memory needs escalate.
• Tariff-related margin risks: New U.S. tariffs are expected to reduce gross margins by 30 to 50 basis points. While Nova’s diversified manufacturing footprint helps mitigate some of the operational impact, management is monitoring evolving trade dynamics and pursuing selective pricing and operational adjustments.
• Operational investment and R&D: Nova plans to increase research and development as well as sales and marketing spending to support its product roadmap. Management views these investments as necessary to capture future growth opportunities, even though they may cause operating expenses to rise in the near term.

Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters

Looking ahead, the StockStory team will be monitoring (1) the pace of gate-all-around and advanced packaging adoption as a leading indicator of revenue growth, (2) the integration and contribution of Sentronics to Nova’s chemical metrology business, and (3) the impact of tariffs on gross margins and any operational or pricing adjustments. Additionally, we will track evolving customer demand in China and memory markets as potential sources of volatility.

Nova currently trades at a forward P/E ratio of 26.3×. In the wake of earnings, is it a buy or sell? The answer lies in our full research report (it’s free).

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