Aris Mining Stock Rockets 62% in 3 Months: What Should You Do Now?

Aris Mining Corporation ARMN shares have shot up 62.3% over the past three months, outperforming the Zacks Mining – Gold industry’s rise of 19.6% and the S&P 500’s increase of 7.5%. The rally has been driven by a spike in gold prices and ARMN’s strong operating performance. Among its peers, B2Gold Corp. BTG and AngloGold Ashanti plc AU have racked up gains of 37% and 44.5%, respectively, over the same period.

ARMN’s 3-month Price Performance

Technical indicators show that ARMN stock eclipsed its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) on March 4, 2025. It is also currently trading above the 200-day SMA. The 50-day SMA continues to read higher than the 200-day SMA following a golden crossover on April 10, 2025, indicating a bullish trend.

ARMN Trades Above 50-Day SMA

Let’s take a look at ARMN’s fundamentals to better analyze how to play the stock.

Growth Projects Underpin ARMN’s Production Upside  

ARMN is rapidly establishing itself as a formidable player in the Latin American gold mining sector. Since its inception in September 2022, the company has demonstrated a strong blend of operational efficiency and strategic expansion. Aris Mining logged a notable 8% year-over-year increase in gold production for the first quarter, underscoring its operational momentum. It positions ARMN favorably for achieving its full-year production guidance of 230,000 to 275,000 ounces. 

The Segovia Operations in Colombia, a cornerstone of Aris Mining's portfolio, is a key contributor to the company’s production upside. ARMN is advancing its expansion projects, including the Segovia mill expansion and the development of the Marmato Lower Mine, which are expected to further drive its production. 

Production rates are expected to crank up in the second half of 2025, following the commissioning of the Segovia plant expansion to 3,000 tons per day, with ARMN targeting an annual production rate of roughly 500,000 ounces of gold. At the Marmato Lower Mine, construction is progressing, targeting a processing capacity of 5,000 tons per day, with the ramp-up scheduled to start in the back half of 2026. 

Aris Mining also holds a 51% stake in the Soto Norte project in Colombia and fully owns the Toroparu project in Guyana, further diversifying its asset portfolio. A pre-feasibility study is underway at Soto Norte with an expected completion in the third quarter of 2025. At Toroparu, the company has launched a new study to update the development plan. As ARMN progresses with its expansion initiatives, it is well-placed to achieve its ambitious production targets and strengthen its standing in the Latin American gold mining industry.

Rallying Gold Prices to Drive ARMN’s Profitability   

Gold prices have rallied roughly 27% this year, largely attributable to aggressive trade policies, including sweeping new import tariffs announced by President Donald Trump that have intensified global trade tensions and heightened investor anxiety. Also, central banks worldwide have been accumulating gold reserves, led by risks arising from Trump’s policies. Prices of the yellow metal catapulted to a record high of $3,500 per ounce on April 22 as the U.S. dollar tumbled amid President Trump's criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and call for an immediate reduction in interest rates.

Increased purchases by central banks, hopes of interest rate cuts, and geopolitical tensions are factors expected to help the yellow metal sustain the rally. While gold prices have fallen from their April 2025 highs, they remain favorable. The yellow metal is gaining from safe-haven demand triggered by trade and geopolitical uncertainties, and is currently hovering above the $3,300 per ounce level. Higher gold prices should boost ARMN’s profitability and drive cash flow generation.

Aris Mining’s Solid Financial Health Aids Expansion Moves

Aris Mining boasts a strong balance sheet and generates substantial cash flows, which allows it to finance its development projects. The company ended the first quarter with a healthy cash balance of $240 million. ARMN also successfully obtained more than $19.4 million from the exercise of in-the-money warrants, bolstering its balance sheet for future investments and supporting Segovia and Marmato expansions. In the first quarter, the company generated $40 million in cash flow after accounting for sustaining capital and income taxes, allowing it to fund most of its strategic growth and expansion initiatives.

A Look at Aris Mining Stock’s Valuation

The ARMN stock looks attractive from a valuation perspective. ARMN is currently trading at a forward price/earnings of 4.44X, a roughly 67% discount when stacked up with the industry’s average of 13.49X. Aris Mining is also trading at a discount to B2Gold and AngloGold Ashanti. Aris Mining, B2Gold and AngloGold Ashanti have a Value Score of A, each.

ARMN’s P/E F12M Vs. Industry, BTG and AU

What ARMN’s Earnings Estimates Indicate

Earnings estimates for ARMN have been revised upward over the past 60 days. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 and 2026 has been revised higher over the same time frame. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ARMN’s 2025 and 2026 earnings implies a year-over-year rise of 226.5% and 80.6%, respectively. 

(Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.)

How Should Investors Play the ARMN Stock?

Aris Mining is advancing several key development projects, including the Segovia mill expansion, to enhance production. Rising earnings estimates and solid earnings growth prospects are the other positives. Rallying gold prices are also expected to drive ARMN’s performance. A solid balance sheet also supports its expansion initiatives. Aris Mining’s cheap valuation should also lure investors seeking value. We recommend investors to accumulate this Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stock as it has solid growth prospects.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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