BOJ to Slow Down Bond Purchase Cuts From April 2026: ETFs in Focus

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced on Tuesday that it will gradually slow the reduction of its Japanese Government Bond (JGB) purchases beginning in April 2026, while keeping its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5%, amid increasing risks to economic growth.

As per the central bank’s existing plan, it will continue to cut JGB purchases by 400 billion yen ($2.76 billion) per quarter until March 2026, reducing the total to about 3 trillion yen per month. From April 2026 to March 2027, the pace of reductions will be halved to 200 billion yen per quarter, with the aim of reaching a monthly purchase level of around 2 trillion yen.

BOJ Goal: Stabilize the Bond Market

According to the BOJ, the policy is designed to enhance “the functioning of the JGB markets in a manner that supports stability.” For the quarter ending June 2025, the monthly JGB purchase amount is projected to be approximately 4.1 trillion yen.

Analysts Weigh in on BOJ’s Strategy

HSBC Global Research noted that the 2 trillion-yen monthly purchase target appears “natural,” aligning with the pre-2013 levels before the adoption of Japan’s ultra-loose monetary policy, as quoted on CNBC.

Krishna Bhimavarapu, APAC economist at State Street Global Advisors, called the BOJ’s decision to delay slowing purchases until 2026 a “minor victory,” as the market currently does not need urgent intervention despite the recent surge in long-term yields.

Rate Hikes Still on the Table

BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda recently told Japan’s parliament that the bank remains open to further rate hikes once there is greater certainty that underlying inflation will consistently approach or stay near the 2% target.

Economic Outlook Clouded by Weak Growth, Persistent Inflation

Japan’s economy is facing growth uncertainty, even as inflation continues to exceed the central bank’s 2% target. Note that Japan’s inflation rate was 3.6% in April, driven in part by a shortage of rice, which led the government to release emergency stockpiles to control soaring prices.

Japan’s gross domestic product contracted by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the previous quarter. The decline was attributed to weaker exports, marking the first quarter-on-quarter contraction in a year.

The BOJ said it expects growth to “moderate,” citing external trade weakness and falling domestic corporate profits. Probably this is why the BOJ noted that accommodative financial conditions would help support the economy.

Impact on ETFs

Japan equity ETFs, including iShares Currency Hedged MSCI Japan ETF HEWJ, WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund DXJ and JPMorgan BetaBuilders Japan ETF BBJP, should gain in the coming days due to this dovish move by the BOJ. Meanwhile, the Japanese currency ETF Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust FXY might lose its strength.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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