Will Declining Mortgage Rates Drive Annaly's Performance?

Annaly Capital Management, Inc.’s NLY performance and prospects are significantly influenced by mortgage rates. Mortgage rates have been witnessing a decline lately. Per a Freddie Mac report, the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.81% as of June 18, 2025, down from 6.87% in the same week a year ago.

Housing affordability challenges are expected to decline with lower mortgage rates. With rates trending lower and balanced supply/affordability playing out in the mortgage market, loan demand is witnessing an increase.

With improving purchase originations and refinancing activities, NLY will likely witness book value improvement in the coming period as spreads in the Agency market tighten, driving asset prices. This should also boost net interest spread, improving the portfolio's overall yield. This is expected to support Annaly’s financials in the upcoming period.

Also, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts of 100 basis points in 2024 helped stabilize the company's funding costs. With this, Annaly’s net interest income (NII) increased to $219.9 million in the first quarter of 2025 from the prior-year quarter’s negative NII of $6.45 million. Hence, with improving NII, earnings pressure will ease for Annaly, supporting the company’s performance.

Here’s How NLY Competes With AGNC & ABR

AGNC Investment’s AGNC performance is also influenced by the mortgage rate trajectory. With relatively lower mortgage rates, AGNC Investment’s NII is witnessing a decline. Its net interest income was $159 million against negative net interest of $30 million in the prior-year quarter. With relatively lower mortgage rates and improving purchase origination, AGNC Investment will likely witness a reduction in operational and financial challenges, and an increase in the gain on sale margin and new investment activity.

Despite relatively lower mortgage rates, Arbor Realty Trust’s ABR NII declined 27.2% year over year to $75.4 billion in the first quarter of 2025. However, with declining mortgage rates and relatively lower interest rates, Arbor Realty will likely witness an increase in net interest spreads. This will ease earnings pressure for the ABR as it is facing rising funding costs. Also, this will reduce operational and financial challenges for Arbor Realty, and increase the gain on sale margin and new investment activity.

Annaly’s Price Performance, Valuations & Estimates

NLY shares have gained 9.6% in the past year compared with the industry’s growth of 4.5%.

Price Performance

From a valuation standpoint, Annaly trades at a forward price-to-tangible book (P/TB) ratio of 0.98X, above the industry’s average of 0.96X.

Price-to-Tangible Book TTM

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NLY’s 2025 earnings implies a year-over-year rise of 6.3%, and for 2026, it is expected to grow 1.4%, respectively. Estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been revised upward over the past 60 days.

Estimates Revision Trend

Annaly currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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