AGNC Q1 Deep Dive: Navigating Rate Volatility, Positioning for MBS Opportunities

Mortgage REIT AGNC Investment (NASDAQ:AGNC) missed Wall Street’s revenue expectations in Q1 CY2025, with sales falling 83.3% year on year to $78 million. Its non-GAAP profit of $0.44 per share was 8.1% above analysts’ consensus estimates.

Is now the time to buy AGNC? Find out in our full research report (it’s free).

StockStory’s Take

AGNC Investment’s first quarter results drew a positive market reaction despite a sharp decline in revenue versus Wall Street expectations. Management attributed the quarter’s performance primarily to disciplined portfolio positioning and a strong liquidity base, which allowed the company to withstand significant interest rate and spread volatility. CEO Peter Federico emphasized that “AGNC was well prepared for the recent market volatility and navigated it without issue,” pointing to the firm’s high cash reserves and dynamic hedging approach as key factors mitigating the impact of wider mortgage spreads and macroeconomic uncertainty.

Looking ahead, management’s outlook for agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) remains constructive, with expectations that current market dislocations could present attractive investment opportunities. Federico highlighted that “our outlook for agency MBS continues to be very favorable,” citing potential regulatory relief for banks and the prospect of improved housing affordability as key themes. The company is focused on maintaining strong liquidity and portfolio diversification to manage ongoing volatility, while also evaluating adjustments to its hedge mix and leverage levels as market conditions evolve.

Key Insights from Management’s Remarks

Management highlighted that strong liquidity, a diversified portfolio, and hedging discipline were central to AGNC’s ability to weather market turbulence and capitalize on emerging opportunities.

• Liquidity strength: AGNC finished the quarter with $6 billion in cash and unencumbered agency MBS—representing 63% of tangible equity—which management cited as critical for navigating rapid market swings without forced asset sales or deleveraging.
• Portfolio growth and composition: The asset portfolio expanded by $5 billion to $79 billion, with new investments focused on high-quality specified pools and securities with favorable prepayment characteristics. Seventy-seven percent of assets now have enhanced prepayment protections, helping to manage extension and convexity risks.
• Hedging mix adjustments: The firm maintained a roughly 60% swap-based and 40% treasury-based hedge mix, increasing its notional hedge portfolio to $64 billion. Management is considering a more balanced approach going forward, potentially shifting toward a 50-50 allocation to improve risk diversification as market conditions warrant.
• Capital raising and deployment: AGNC raised $509 million in common equity through its at-the-market program, deploying new capital primarily into attractive MBS opportunities. Management emphasized that these moves were accretive to existing shareholders, supporting both book value and earnings.
• Macro and technical influences: The quarter was marked by significant volatility in interest rates and swap spreads, with management noting that technical factors—such as regulatory constraints on bank balance sheets and passive fund flows—played a larger role in market moves than fundamental issues with the agency MBS market itself.

Drivers of Future Performance

AGNC’s forward outlook is shaped by evolving market volatility, regulatory developments, and the search for stable returns amid macroeconomic uncertainty.

• Regulatory changes affecting demand: Management expects that regulatory relief for banks—specifically adjustments to supplemental leverage ratio requirements—could restore demand for agency MBS, supporting spreads and valuations. Progress on this front is seen as a potential catalyst for improved market functioning.
• Portfolio and leverage flexibility: AGNC intends to maintain flexibility in leverage and asset mix, adjusting its risk profile as spreads and returns shift. Management noted that current wide mortgage spreads allow for attractive returns without the need for excessive leverage, but ongoing volatility may prompt further adjustments.
• Prepayment and hedge management: The company is actively monitoring prepayment risk, particularly after industry consolidation among large mortgage servicers. Enhanced portfolio protections and a diversified hedge mix are intended to manage convexity and extension risks as interest rates fluctuate.

Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters

In the coming quarters, the StockStory team will be watching (1) the pace and impact of potential regulatory changes affecting bank capital requirements and agency MBS demand, (2) AGNC’s adjustments to portfolio leverage and hedge mix as spread volatility continues, and (3) developments in prepayment risk following industry consolidation among mortgage servicers. Shifts in macroeconomic sentiment and liquidity trends will also be important indicators for future performance.

AGNC Investment currently trades at $9.21, up from $8.18 just before the earnings. In the wake of this quarter, is it a buy or sell? See for yourself in our full research report (it’s free).

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