Will AGNC Investment's Active Portfolio Management Drive Growth?

AGNC Investment Corp. AGNC has been taking a proactive and defensive approach to portfolio management, which can drive growth over the long term. Taking an active stance by frequently adjusting asset allocations and hedging strategies, AGNC is positioning itself to reduce risks while capturing yield opportunities.

The company has maintained a robust hedge position. As of March 31, 2025, AGNC maintained interest rate hedges that covered 91% of its Investment Securities Repo, TBA positions and other debt. This high hedge ratio shows the company prioritizes protection against interest rate volatility, enhancing book value and future earnings.

AGNC Investment has strategically reduced exposure to more volatile non-agency mortgage-backed securities (“MBS”) and shifted toward higher-coupon Agency MBS. This improves prepayment probability and supports better cash flow visibility.

Further, with spreads between Agency MBS and benchmarks (like Treasuries and swaps) reaching near-pandemic highs in early April 2025, AGNC’s large $77.9 billion Agency MBS portfolio (as of March 31, 2205) is well-positioned to benefit from compelling forward returns, particularly on a leveraged basis. Since Agency MBS are backed by GSEs (Government-Sponsored Enterprises), principal and interest payments are guaranteed, making Agency MBS a safer investment choice. 

While short-term earnings might fluctuate due to market volatility and spread dynamics, AGNC’s disciplined active management and defensive positioning set a solid foundation for long-term growth.

How AGNC Competes With NLY & STWD

AGNC competes with Annaly Capital Management NLY and Starwood Property Trust STWD within mortgage REITs industry. However, investment approach varies for AGNC, NLY and STWD.

Annaly pursues a more diversified strategy, combining traditional Agency MBS with non-agency and credit-sensitive assets. The traditional Agency MBS provides downside protection and investments in more non-agency and credit-focused asset classes that enhance returns. NLY is focusing on improving capabilities by acquiring newly originated mortgage servicing rights (MSRs) from its partner network. This will continue to provide a strong advantage in expanding its MSR business. As of March 31, 2025, Annaly’s investment portfolio aggregated $84.9 billion.

Meanwhile, Starwood operates in a different niche, focusing primarily on commercial real estate, including commercial mortgage-backed securities (“CMBS”) and real estate debt investments. As of first-quarter 2025, STWD held a diversified portfolio of $1.02 billion. While CMBS holdings slightly declined during the quarter, Starwood maintained steady income through principal repayments and targeted acquisitions. Its in-depth expertise in navigating complex commercial markets positions the company as a strong competitor.

AGNC Investment’s Price Performance, Valuations & Estimates

Shares of AGNC have gained 6.4% year to date compared with the industry’s growth of 2.8%. 

Price Performance

From a valuation standpoint, AGNC Investment trades at a forward price-to-tangible book ratio of 1.08X, above the industry’s average of 0.96X.

Price-to-Tangible Book TTM

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AGNC’s 2025 and 2026 earnings implies year-over-year declines of 11.2% and 3.9%, respectively. The estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been unchanged over the past 30 days.

Estimates Revision Trend

AGNC currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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