AI Meets Infrastructure: Will BigBear.ai Lead in Public Sector Tech?

BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. BBAI is carving out a niche at the intersection of artificial intelligence and national infrastructure. While first-quarter 2025 results fell short, with a revenue miss at $34.76 million and an EPS loss of 25 cents, the company’s expanding backlog and strategic wins point to a longer-term growth story worth watching.

Under new CEO Kevin McAleenan, BigBear.ai is refocusing on mission-critical AI deployments in defense, border security and supply-chain optimization. Its $385 million backlog at the first-quarter end, up 30% year over year, reflects deepening demand across these sectors. Recent wins include the Department of Defense’s Orion Decision Support Platform and AI-powered threat detection deployments at major U.S. airports.

BigBear.ai’s integration of operational expertise with cutting-edge AI models gives it an edge in solving real-world public sector challenges. Its portfolio — spanning Pangiam Threat Detection, veriScan and Shipyard.ai — is being scaled across federal and commercial domains, enhancing interoperability and reach.

Financially, the company remains in the investment mode, with negative adjusted EBITDA of $7 million in the first quarter driven by elevated R&D spend. Yet, a strengthened balance sheet —$108 million in cash and reduced debt — gives it room to navigate volatility and capitalize on multiyear contracts.

As the government and infrastructure sectors accelerate tech modernization, BigBear.ai appears well-positioned to become a trusted AI partner. Although execution risk remains, its strategic focus, expanding partnerships and rising international interest depict that BigBear.ai could lead the next wave of the public sector AI transformation.

How BBAI Stacks Up Against PLTR and CACI

In the race to modernize government infrastructure with AI, BigBear.ai faces stiff competition from larger, more established players like Palantir Technologies PLTR and CACI International CACI. Palantir is a dominant force in defense and intelligence, with its Gotham and Foundry platforms widely used by U.S. agencies for mission-critical data analysis. Its commercial expansion and long-standing federal relationships give it a scale advantage over BBAI.

Meanwhile, CACI leverages its deep government ties and technical services expertise to deploy AI-driven solutions in surveillance, cybersecurity and military systems. With consistent profitability and multibillion-dollar contracts, CACI brings operational stability that BBAI is still working to achieve.

While BBAI’s agility and mission-driven innovation offer a compelling edge in niche deployments, Palantir and CACI benefit from broader footprints and mature financial profiles. For BigBear.ai to emerge as a public sector AI leader, it must continue to out-innovate and secure high-value contracts in specialized markets.

BBAI Stock’s Price Performance & Valuation Trend

Shares of this Virginia-based AI-powered decision intelligence solutions provider have climbed 63.6% in the past three months, significantly outperforming the Zacks Computers - IT Services industry, the Zacks Computer and Technology sector and the S&P 500 index, as you can see below.

BBAI Share Price Performance

BBAI stock is currently trading at a discount compared with the industry peers, with a forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 8.61, as evidenced by the chart below.

Earnings Estimate Trend of BBAI

BBAI’s earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 have trended downward in the past 60 days to a loss of 41 cents and 21 cents per share, respectively. However, the estimated figure for 2025 implies a year-over-year improvement from a loss of $1.10 per share a year ago.

Earnings Estimate Revision

BBAI stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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