Air Lease’s first quarter results were met with a strongly positive market reaction following the company’s outperformance versus Wall Street expectations. Management attributed these results to robust global demand for leased aircraft, substantial insurance recoveries tied to its Russia fleet, and continued gains from aircraft sales. CEO John Plueger highlighted ongoing fleet expansion and noted that both revenue and book value per share reached new highs. The quarter’s performance was also supported by 100% fleet utilization and higher lease rates on extensions, which management said were “a full 50% or so above” prior rates for some wide-body aircraft.
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Air Lease (AL) Q1 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $738.3 million vs analyst estimates of $710.5 million (11.3% year-on-year growth, 3.9% beat)
- Adjusted EPS: $1.51 vs analyst estimates of $1.18 (28% beat)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $1.01 billion vs analyst estimates of $633.7 million (137% margin, 59.5% beat)
- Operating Margin: 94%, up from 49.8% in the same quarter last year
- owned aircraft: 487, up 15 year on year
- Market Capitalization: $6.35 billion
While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions.
Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated.
Here is what has caught our attention.
Our Top 5 Analyst Questions Air Lease’s Q1 Earnings Call
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Catherine O’Brien (Goldman Sachs) asked for real-time examples of lease extensions and order placements post-tariffs. CEO John Plueger provided specific examples of wide-body lease extensions in Asia at rates significantly above prior levels, emphasizing recent market strength.
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Catherine O’Brien (Goldman Sachs) also inquired about the pursuit of further Russia insurance claims. Plueger stated the process is ongoing, with additional capital allocation plans dependent on the outcome of future recoveries.
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Hillary Cacanando (Deutsche Bank) questioned capital allocation priorities, including buybacks and M&A. Plueger said all options are under review, with timing contingent on insurance settlements and market developments; no decision is imminent.
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Hillary Cacanando (Deutsche Bank) raised the issue of tariff pass-throughs and whether airlines might seek relief. Plueger reiterated that tariffs are contractually the airline’s responsibility and noted no such requests have been made to date.
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Moshe Orenbuch (TD Cowen) asked about appetite for organic growth and share repurchases now that capital constraints have eased. Plueger and Willis confirmed greater flexibility, but emphasized disciplined evaluation of all avenues before committing capital.
Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
In the coming quarters, the StockStory team will be tracking (1) the pace of lease yield improvement as more legacy contracts are repriced, (2) the impact of additional insurance recoveries on capital allocation decisions, and (3) any changes in global aircraft supply or tariff policies that could affect delivery schedules. Monitoring the company’s execution on planned aircraft sales and progress toward expanding managed fleet vehicles will also be key indicators of future performance.
Air Lease currently trades at $57.01, up from $48.75 just before the earnings. Is the company at an inflection point that warrants a buy or sell? See for yourself in our full research report (it’s free).
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