Through 1H 2025, U.S. Economy Threads the Needle

Monday, June 30, 2025

It’s the final day of the first half of 2025, and market indexes are once again at all-time highs on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, closing-in on the Dow and small-cap Russell 2000. We’re also roughly +20% from near-term lows, in early April of this year. In short, it’s been quite a rollercoaster ride for investors. 

We are light on economic prints today, but not for the week: despite a shortened trading week in observance of Independence Day on the 4th of July Friday, this is Jobs Week: including a new Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) tomorrow, private-sector payrolls from Automatic Data Processing ADP on Wednesday, and the U.S. Employment Report on Thursday, joining normal Thursday Weekly Jobless Claims.

Among the most important number we’ll be checking closely are the ADP figures, which came in at their lowest levels in more than two years at +37K, with negative monthly tallies of -17K in Professional/Business Services, -13K in Education/Healthcare and Trade/Transportation/Utilities -4K. Also, Continuing Jobless Claims last week came in at their highest level in 3 1/2 years, closing in on 2 million longer-term jobless claims for week.

Expected Reports This Week Aside from Jobs

This week, we’ll also see the final print on U.S. Manufacturing and Services PMI from S&P and ISM. In addition, Construction spending, Factory Orders and Auto Sales will also hit the tape. And this is before mentioning that the one of the most consequential tax bills in U.S. history is in the process of making its way to President Trump’s desk for signing on July 4th.

After today’s open, we’ll see a new Chicago Business Barometer (PMI) for June. It is expected to crank up to 43.0 from 40.5 reported last month. This would be consistent with business outlooks improving, partly on the removal of big reciprocal tariffs on virtually all U.S. trading partners, as well as an airstrike on Iran earlier this month which has produced no counter attacks on the U.S.

Report Card for 1H25

We mentioned it was a turbulent first half of the year, but we are closing strong. The Nasdaq rides a 5-day winning streak and is +17.2% in Q2 — its best performance since Q2 2020 — while the S&P 500 is up 4 of 5 sessions. The Dow remains -2.7% from fresh all-time highs. Currently. the Dow is up another +230 points, the S&P 500 +20 and the Nasdaq +120 points.

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