National Security AI Booms: Where Does BigBear.ai Fit In?

As geopolitical risks intensify and defense budgets swell, artificial intelligence (AI) has become a cornerstone of national security modernization. From autonomous threat detection to battlefield decision support, AI-powered technologies are transforming how governments secure borders, protect critical infrastructure, and make strategic decisions. Amid this boom, BigBear.ai BBAI is carving out a niche at the intersection of AI, defense, and operational expertise.

In first-quarter 2025, BigBear.ai reported a 5% year-over-year revenue increase to $34.8 million, driven largely by Department of Homeland Security and digital identity contracts. The company also secured a flagship deal to deliver and maintain the Department of Defense’s Joint Staff J35 Orion AI platform, solidifying its position in high-stakes military applications.

What sets BigBear.ai apart is its mission-first approach: leveraging AI not as a standalone software but as embedded, operational solutions customized for national security and critical infrastructure. Platforms like veriScan, Trueface, and ConductorOS are already deployed at U.S. airports and border points, with expansion into international markets underway through partnerships like Smiths Detection.

Despite operational momentum, challenges persist. The company reported a wider adjusted EBITDA loss of $7 million in the first quarter, hurt by government funding delays and higher R&D investments. Yet with a $385 million backlog and improved liquidity ($108 million in cash), BigBear.ai is better positioned to weather near-term turbulence.

As AI reshapes defense priorities, BigBear.ai remains a compelling albeit speculative player, uniquely aligned with the evolving demands of U.S. and allied security missions.

How BigBear.ai Competes With Rivals in National Security AI

As BigBear.ai expands in the national security AI space, two major competitors—Palantir Technologies PLTR and C3.ai AI—continue to dominate the conversation.

Palantir is a long-established force in government AI, known for its robust platforms like Gotham and Foundry. Palantir has built deep-rooted partnerships across the U.S. Department of Defense and the intelligence community. With a consistent stream of government contracts and a strong presence in battlefield intelligence and decision support, Palantir remains a high bar for BBAI to match in both scale and influence.

C3.ai, while more commercially diversified, is aggressively targeting defense through its suite of pre-built AI models and its work with the U.S. Air Force and defense contractors. C3.ai focuses on predictive maintenance, logistics, and readiness—areas where BigBear.ai is also making significant gains. However, C3.ai benefits from broader brand recognition and a head start in enterprise AI integration.

To gain ground, BigBear.ai must differentiate its mission-first approach and execution speed against Palantir and C3.ai.

BBAI Stock’s Price Performance & Valuation Trend

Shares of this Virginia-based AI-powered decision intelligence solutions provider have surged 101.3% in the past month, significantly outperforming the Zacks Computers - IT Services industry, the Zacks Computer and Technology sector and the S&P 500 index, as you can see below.

BBAI Share Price Performance

BBAI stock is currently trading at a discount compared with the industry peers, with a forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 12.44, as evidenced by the chart below.

Earnings Estimate Trend of BBAI Stock

BBAI’s bottom line estimates for 2025 have remained unchanged at a loss of 41 cents, while trending a little downward for 2026 to 21 cents per share, in the past 60 days. However, the estimated figure for 2025 implies a year-over-year improvement from a loss of $1.10 per share a year ago.

BBAI’s Earnings Estimate Revision

BBAI stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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