Is a Beat in Store for Progressive This Earnings Season?

The Progressive Corporation PGR is expected to register an improvement in its top and bottom lines when it reports second-quarter 2025 results on July 16, before the opening bell.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PGR’s second-quarter revenues is pegged at $21.5 billion, indicating 17.9% growth from the year-ago reported figure.

The consensus estimate for earnings is pegged at $4.30 per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PGR’s second-quarter earnings has moved up 9.4% in the past 30 days. The estimate suggests year-over-year growth of 62.3%. 

Decent Earnings Surprise History

Progressive’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed in one, the average surprise being 13.98%. 

What the Zacks Model Unveils for PGR

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Progressive this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. 

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: PGR has an Earnings ESP of +2.41%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate of $4.41 is pegged higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.30.

The Progressive Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

The Progressive Corporation price-eps-surprise | The Progressive Corporation Quote

Zacks Rank: PGR carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

(Find the latest earnings estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.)

Factors Likely to Shape Q2 Results

An increase in premiums, higher net investment income and fees and service revenues are likely to have favored revenues in the second quarter.

A compelling product portfolio, leadership position, strength in the Vehicle and Property businesses, healthy policies in force and solid retention are likely to have aided net premiums earned. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net premiums earned is pegged at $20.2 billion. 

The personal auto business is likely to have benefited from competitive product offerings and a strong market presence. Focusing on segmentation and prudent risk selection is likely to have aided policies in force. Both agency and direct auto channels are likely to have driven policy growth. The consensus estimate for personal auto policies in force is pegged at 25.7 million.

A larger invested asset base is likely to have aided improvement in net investment income. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the metric is pegged at $861 million. The insurer is likely to have benefited from pretax net realized gains on securities. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the metric is pegged at $103.3 million.  

Higher loss and loss-adjustment expenses, policy acquisition costs and other underwriting expenses are likely to have increased expenses.  The consensus mark for loss and loss-adjustment expense ratio is pegged at 69.

The second quarter escaped the brutality of catastrophic events, which is likely to benefit underwriting results. This coupled with prudent underwriting is likely to have aided improvement in the combined ratio. The consensus mark for combined ratio is pegged at 89.

Other Stocks to Consider

Some other P&C insurance stocks with the right combination of elements to deliver an earnings beat this time around are:

Arch Capital Group Ltd. ACGL has an Earnings ESP of +7.92% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $2.34, indicating a year-over-year decrease of 8.9%

ACGL’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.

Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. KNSL has an Earnings ESP of +2.33% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $4.39, indicating a year-over-year increase of 17%

KNSL’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.

RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. RNR has an Earnings ESP of +2.16% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $10.19, indicating a year-over-year decrease of 17.8%.

RNR’s earnings beat estimates in three of the last four reported quarters and missed in one. 

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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