AEVA's Sandia Deal is Big, but Can it Justify the Stock Surge?

Aeva Technologies AEVA is certainly turning heads, especially with big news about its new partnership with Sandia National Laboratories. This collaboration aims to help secure U.S. nuclear reactor facilities, a critical national interest. Sandia recently finished evaluating AEVA's advanced 4D LiDAR system and is now testing it directly on-site. The goal is to detect unwanted intruders in sensitive areas, even in tough spots like water intakes or places where visibility is poor. For AEVA, this isn't just a technical win; it's a huge stamp of approval for its unique FMCW (Frequency Modulated Continuous Wave) LiDAR technology in crucial infrastructure.

However, a critical factor to consider is this: Aeva Technologies stock has already skyrocketed nearly 800% since October, currently trading around $27 after hitting a high of $38.80 in June. The big question for investors is whether this incredible surge can actually last. Competition is fierce from players like Ouster OUST and Innoviz Technologies INVZ. While AEVA has clearly carved out a spot beyond the crowded self-driving car LiDAR market, we need to ask if this justifies its very high valuation. Let's break down the investment picture.

Sandia Partnership: Real-World Use Taking Shape

AEVA's 4D LiDAR system, powered by its Atlas sensor, is proving its worth outside of just lab tests. Engineers at Sandia praised AEVA's solution for its ability to detect hard-to-see objects, like submerged threats, up to 35 meters away. What's more, it works around the clock without needing GPS and performs well even in adverse weather conditions. This gives it a clear advantage over older security systems. This breakthrough isn't just about security. It shows AEVA's unique ability to expand LiDAR technology far beyond just cars. Much like Innoviz Technologies, which is using its solid-state LiDAR in non-vehicle applications, AEVA is now targeting infrastructure markets. Think nuclear facilities, power plants and airports. With Sandia as such a high-profile validation, Aeva Technologies could be on the verge of unlocking a completely new business area that truly values accuracy, reliability and constant operation.

Valuation: A Stretch of the Imagination?

Despite these impressive wins, AEVA's valuation remains a significant concern. The company's current market value sits near $1.5 billion. That's some 20% higher than Ouster's valuation, even though Ouster brought in almost 10 times more revenue than AEVA in the first quarter. To be specific, Aeva Technologies reported first-quarter 2025 revenue of $3.4 million compared with Ouster's $32.6 million. Plus, Ouster is showing a healthy 41% profit margin and is much closer to actually making a profit. Meanwhile, Innoviz is successfully deploying its high-resolution LiDAR in areas like surveying and railway monitoring. They are doing this while maintaining a more reasonable company value and still having a broader presence in the automotive world.

Compared to these peers, AEVA's valuation seems to be betting on extremely aggressive growth that simply hasn't happened yet. Yes, the company has landed a $50 million deal with a major Fortune 500 company and is seeing strong interest from industrial clients. But when you look at AEVA's current financial performance, the investor optimism feels a bit ahead of what the numbers show.

Industrial and Transportation Growth: New Opportunities

One of AEVA's smartest moves has been adapting its Eve-1 sensor, originally designed for vehicles, for use in industrial settings. Partners like SICK AG and LMI Technologies are now integrating this sensor into systems for precision factories and robotics. Its ability to measure tiny vibrations and movements with incredible accuracy makes it perfect for complex tasks in electronics and component manufacturing. This strategy mirrors Ouster's approach. Ouster has greatly diversified into smart infrastructure and robotics, which has helped it navigate the slower-than-expected growth in self-driving cars. Similarly, Innoviz has focused on long-term applications in construction and mapping to spread out its revenue sources. AEVA is now doing the same, positioning its hardware as a high-accuracy tool in manufacturing, where it can command higher profit margins.

Aeva Technology’s entry into Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) through its partnership with Sensys Gatso Australia is another promising area. Their LiDAR units are being used in mobile speed enforcement, which is one of the fastest-growing applications in traffic management. Unlike regular sensors, AEVA's devices can track real-time speed and direction even in difficult lighting or weather conditions. As "smart city" technologies become more common, this kind of reliable, low-maintenance hardware could unlock new revenue streams. Innoviz has also been active in similar infrastructure deployments, especially where accurate long-range detection is key. And while Ouster's systems are used for roadside monitoring, AEVA's unique ability to track movement could give it a competitive edge in ITS.

Financials and Outlook: A Mixed Picture

Financially, AEVA has access to a $125 million equity facility and has received a $32.5 million investment from a major partner. These funds provide enough cash to continue growing. However, the company continues to spend more than $25 million each quarter. Despite beating first-quarter earnings expectations (reporting a loss of 45 cents per share versus an estimated loss of 48 cents), AEVA is still quite a way from actually making a profit. Analysts predict impressive 90% revenue growth for AEVA in 2025 and more than 20% improvement in earnings per share. However, with little history of consistent profits and a costly research and development roadmap, significant risks remain. In other words, the company has exciting potential, but it hasn't yet proven it can consistently deliver strong earnings or profit margins.

Conclusion

AEVA's partnership with Sandia National Laboratories marks a significant step in its journey. It's evolving from just a niche automotive LiDAR maker into a company with diverse sensing applications. The role of its 4D LiDAR system in securing nuclear sites, combined with its growing presence in industrial automation and transportation systems, proves that AEVA's technology is finding real-world uses. But despite all this positive progress, AEVA's stock seems to be priced as if everything will go perfectly.

With a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), AEVA remains an interesting, though speculative, bet on the future of advanced sensing technology. The company has multiple opportunities to succeed. However, until its revenue significantly grows and it starts burning less cash, investors should keep their expectations in check. AEVA is definitely a stock to watch closely, but it's probably not one to chase blindly right now. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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