Comfort Systems or Carrier: Which HVAC Stock Is a Buy Now?

Comfort Systems USA FIX and Carrier Global CARR both operate in the HVAC space, but they occupy distinct niches. Comfort Systems is a leading commercial HVAC contractor focused on design-build services and project execution primarily in the U.S. market. Carrier, on the other hand, is a global provider of heating, ventilation, air conditioning, and refrigeration equipment—serving residential, commercial, industrial and cold-chain segments worldwide.

With rising demand for energy-efficient systems and climate resilience, the sector is gaining renewed investor attention. Both firms benefit from macro tailwinds—aging infrastructure, tightening efficiency standards, and post-pandemic commercial upgrades. Given current macro uncertainty—tariffs, capex cycles, tech buildouts—it's an opportune moment to compare them head-to-head. 

Let's dive deep and closely compare the fundamentals of the two stocks to determine which one is a better investment now.

The Case for Comfort Systems Stock

Comfort Systems’ business model—organic growth supplemented by strategic acquisitions—offers a steady revenue stream and scalable cost synergies. The company’s focus on fast-growing sectors (tech, industrial, healthcare) and its strategy of acquiring specialty contractors (e.g., its recent Century Contractors acquisition) are driving its expansion. CEO Brian Lane highlighted the strong demand in technology sectors and resilient markets across Texas, Florida, and the Carolinas, mitigating seasonal weakness. The business benefits from shorter-duration contracts and faster cash turnover compared to heavy-equipment manufacturers like Carrier, offering protection against tariff or inflation pressures.

Comfort Systems is positioned for robust growth in 2025, backed by a record-high $6.9 billion (as of first-quarter 2025) backlog and strong demand in advanced technology sectors. The company continues to benefit from large-scale projects in data centers, chip fabrication, and industrial markets, which now make up 62% of total first-quarter volume. Within that, tech accounts for 37% of total revenues—up from 30% a year ago—underscoring a solid secular tailwind. Modular construction is also scaling rapidly, now representing 19% of revenues and supported by over 2.5 million square feet of production space. The re-industrialization of the U.S. economy—driven by onshoring of manufacturing, clean energy investments, and federal incentives—is generating powerful tailwinds for FIX. Management noted significant activity in sectors such as pharmaceuticals, electronics manufacturing, and heavy industry. Institutional markets, such as healthcare, education and government, remain strong, with healthcare alone contributing 10% of revenue and expected to grow further amid demographic tailwinds.

Despite concerns about tariffs and macro uncertainty, the company’s scale, customer relationships, and disciplined project selection position it to outperform smaller peers. Management also maintains a conservative approach to guidance, even as visibility into 2026 remains unusually strong. Despite the solid first-quarter beat, management maintained a cautiously modest full-year outlook (high-single-digit organic growth).

Key risks include the cyclical nature of construction projects and potential labor shortages, but Comfort Systems’ hefty backlog and proven ability to pass through costs suggest it is well-positioned to manage these challenges.

The Case for Carrier Stock

Carrier is a global manufacturer with powerful Scale, digital penetration, and a booming aftermarket. Carrier continues to benefit from cost synergies, pruning of lower-growth lines (e.g., divestiture of Commercial Refrigeration), and tailored pricing strategies.

In the Americas, residential HVAC sales are expected to grow in the high single-digit to low double-digit range in 2025, fueled by regulatory-driven product mix shifts such as the transition to 454B refrigerant and supportive pricing tied to tariff mitigation. Carrier is also capitalizing on robust demand in commercial HVAC, with data center-related sales on track to double from $500 million in 2024 to $1 billion in 2025. This is complemented by strength in healthcare, pharma, and electronics-related mega projects. In Europe, Viessmann Climate Solutions is benefiting from rising heat pump adoption, driven by subsidy programs and climate-focused policy support. 

Carrier is also pushing into smart energy systems, including its partnership with Alphabet GOOGL to enhance grid efficiency. The global aftermarket segment continues to be a high-margin driver, with attachment rates on commercial chillers surpassing 60% and digital service expansion through platforms like LYNX Fleet. Despite light commercial softness and macro uncertainties, Carrier maintains confidence in delivering mid-single-digit organic sales growth and nearly 20% adjusted EPS growth for 2025, underpinned by productivity initiatives, pricing strategies, and a strong backlog.

Carrier faces multiple headwinds in 2025 that could weigh on growth. Tariff-related cost inflation—mostly from China—poses a $300 million risk that Carrier aims to offset through pricing, which may strain margins and demand. Macroeconomic uncertainty and high interest rates could limit spending on residential and light commercial HVAC systems. Light commercial sales already fell 35% in the first quarter, with 2025 expectations lowered. In Europe, strong heat pump demand is tempered by potential regulatory or subsidy changes in the quarter that could affect Viessmann. Weakness in China’s residential and light commercial markets, down 20% in the first quarter, also remains a concern. Meanwhile, execution risks tied to supply chain shifts and the refrigerant transition may further pressure operations.

FIX & CARR Stock Performances

Comfort Systems shares have surged 57.1% in the past three months alone, surpassing the broader Zacks Building Products - Air Conditioner and Heating industry’s 19.5% gain and leaving broader Construction sector benchmarks far behind. On the other hand, CARR stock has gained 25.9% during the same period.

Although FIX stock performance has an edge over CARR, the latter offers a 1.2% dividend yield, higher than FIX’s 0.3%.

Valuation of FIX & CARR Stocks

Having a market capitalization of around $19.3 billion, Comfort Systems’ stock has been volatile, reflecting the high expectations built into its valuation. Even after a sharp rally, FIX shares trade around 27× forward 12-month earnings – a premium valuation, but supported by its rapid growth and 36.4% return on equity (ROE).

With a market capitalization of around $64.3 billion, Carrier trades at roughly 23.2X forward 12-month earnings. CARR has an ROE of 18.1%.

Estimate Revision Trend for Comfort Systems and Carrier

Comfort Systems’ earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 have trended upward in the past 60 days to $19.28 per share and $20.41, respectively. The estimated figures for 2025 and 2026 indicate 32.1% and 5.8% year-over-year growth, respectively.

For FIX Stock

For Carrier, earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 have trended upward in the past 60 days to $3.03 per share and $3.43, respectively. The estimated figures for 2025 and 2026 indicate 18.4% and 13.1% year-over-year growth, respectively.

For CARR Stock

Which Stock Is the Better Bet Now?

Both companies are thriving, but Comfort Systems appears to have the stronger upside at this moment. It boasts faster growth, a record pipeline of projects, and currently carries a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). Carrier, currently carrying a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), remains a solid blue-chip in HVAC with a good dividend, but its upside is somewhat more moderate given its lower growth rate. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Carrier, with its broader product portfolio and global reach, delivers stable cash flow, grows its aftermarket business, and benefits from product innovation. Yet, its exposure to regional slowdowns and tariffs makes FIX’s U.S.-centric, backlog-rich operations look comparatively more resilient.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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