For Immediate Release
Chicago, IL – July 21, 2025 – Zacks Market Edge is a podcast hosted weekly by Zacks Stock Strategist Tracey Ryniec. Every week, Tracey will be joined by guests to discuss the hottest investing topics in stocks, bonds and ETFs and how it impacts your life. To listen to the podcast, click here: https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2592015/is-a-recession-coming-in-2025
Is a Recession Coming in 2025?
Welcome to Episode #453 of the Zacks Market Edge Podcast.
- (1:00) - Breaking Down The Current Unemployment Data: How Does This Impact The Economy?
- (7:50) - Are We Currently Heading Into A Recession or Can We Recover?
- (21:00) - How Should You Be Navigating The Current Stock Market Environment Right Now?
- (30:20) - Will Nvidia Keep Pushing For New 52 Week Highs?
- (38:40) - What Lessons Can We Apply From Warren Buffetts Investing Style If We Head Into A Recession?
- (49:45) - What Impact Will The Federal Reserve, Tariffs and The Energy Market Have On A Possible Incoming Recession?
- (1:01:50) - Episode Roundup: FAST, NVDA, CTAS
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Every week, host and Zacks stock strategist, Tracey Ryniec, will be joined by guests to discuss the hottest investing topics in stocks, bonds, and ETFs and how it impacts your life.
This week, Tracey is joined by Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Chief Economist, John Blank, to talk about their favorite topic over the last 3 years: Is the US economy in a recession and/or is one coming soon?
The Data Says No Recession
It’s half-way through the year already. US GDP is still positive, and is expected to be for the second quarter, even with the tariffs and trade war.
Employment is steady with the BLS survey averaging 146,000 new jobs a month over the last 12 months. The unemployment rate remains low at 4.1% in June, down from 4.2% in May. Even the weekly claims data is muted. It’s not getting worse, it’s not getting better. It is stable.
Is the Recession Still to Come?
Yet John is concerned about the Leading Economic Indicators which saw its recession signal triggered in May. He’s also concerned about the average tariffs now being 18%, the highest since the 1930s.
The AI Revolution spending looks enormous, at $450 billion this year alone. But compared to the total economy, it’s just about 1.3% of it.
Considering 3 Stocks: NVIDIA, Fastenal and Cintas
1. Fastenal Co. FAST
Fastenal recently reported earnings. It makes fasteners and is a bellwether for the manufacturing and construction industries. It beat again and has missed just twice in the last 5 years.
Fastenal shares are up 27.6% year-to-date. It now trades with a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 41.2. A P/E over 20 is considered expensive. Fastenal also has a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 13.7. A P/B ratio under 3.0 are usually values.
Earnings are expected to be up 10% this year. But you’ll pay a high price for those.
Shares of Fastenal are trading near new all-time highs. Is there more gas left in the tank?
2. NVIDIA Corp. NVDA
NVIDIA is busting out to new all-time highs again. Shares are up 29% year-to-date. NVIDIA now has a market cap of $4.1 trillion.
It’s more expensive now, than just a month ago. NVIDIA trades with a forward P/E of 40. But earnings are expected to jump 42% in fiscal 2026. The earnings growth is there.
NVIDIA also has a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 28.1. A P/S ratio over 10 is usually considered an expensive stock.
If you aren’t an owner of NVIDIA yet, is it too late to get in?
3. Cintas Corp. CTAS
Cintas makes uniforms. It reported earnings this week and beat. Cintas has beat on earnings every quarter for five years. That’s an impressive streak.
Shares of Cintas are up 21.5% year-to-date. It is trading near its all-time highs. Earnings are expected to jump 15.8% this year. But it’s not cheap. Cintas has a forward P/E of 44. It also trades with a P/S ratio of 8.5. A P/S ratio under 1.0 indicates a stock is cheap.
Is Cintas too hot to handle right now?
What Else Do You Need to Know About the Economy and Stocks?
Tune into this week’s podcast to find out.
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Fastenal Company (FAST): Free Stock Analysis Report NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA): Free Stock Analysis Report Cintas Corporation (CTAS): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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