Can Cameco Sustain Its Strong Revenue Growth Through 2025?

Cameco Corporation CCJ, one of the world’s leading providers of uranium fuel, has maintained a robust growth trajectory over the past few years. From 2021 to 2024, the company posted a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.8% in revenues. In the first quarter of 2025, CCJ’s revenues rose 17% year over year to CAD 789 million ($550 million).

In the first quarter, the uranium segment’s revenues grew 10% driven by a 15% increase in the Canadian dollar average realized price, which helped offset the 5% dip in sales volumes. Despite a 30% decline in average U.S. dollar spot price for uranium, Cameco benefited from fixed-price contracts and favorable currency dynamics.

Cameco plans sales deliveries at 31-34 million pounds in 2025, with the bulk of sales planned for the second half. In 2024, CCJ delivered 33.6 million pounds of uranium, generating revenues of CAD 2.68 billion ($2.29 billion). For 2025, this is forecast to grow to CAD 2.8–3.0 billion.
Cameco’s fuel services division’s first-quarter revenues soared 88% to $135 million, aided by a 60% rise in sales volumes and a 17% increase in average realized price. The gains in price were mainly due to contracts that were entered into in an improved price environment and the impact of a weakening Canadian dollar on U.S.-priced contracts. 

Fuel services revenues are projected at CAD 500–550 million in 2025, supported by sales deliveries of 13–14 million kgU. The segment’s revenues were CAD 459 million from the delivery of 12.1 million kgU in 2024s.

Backed by momentum in both segments, Cameco envisions 2025 total revenues at CAD 3.3-3.55 billion. If achieved, this would represent a CAGR of 30.8% (at the midpoint) over the 2021-2025 period.

In contrast, revenues of peers Energy Fuels UUUU and Ur Energy URG are more volatile reflecting their strategies to withhold sales when prices are low.  
Energy Fuels’ revenues surged 106% year over year to $78.11 million in 2024, which was primarily due to Heavy Mineral Sand (HMS) revenues following the acquisition of Base Resources and higher uranium revenues. In the first quarter of 2025, HMS sales resulted in revenues of $16.9 million and the company decided to withhold uranium sales. This led to a 33.5% year over year decline in revenues.

Looking at the company’s trends over 2021-2024, revenues have grown from $3 million in 2021 to $78 million in 2024. However, this does not indicate any company-specific growth as in 2021, Energy Fuels had not made any uranium sales.

Energy Fuels expects to sell between 200,000 and 300,000 pounds of uranium during 2025, under its existing long-term contracts with utilities.

Ur Energy sold 570,000 pounds of uranium to generate revenues of $33.7 million in 2024.  Ur Energy abstained from uranium in both 2021 and 2022 leading to nil revenues.

In 2023, Ur Energy sold 280,000 pounds or uranium to the DOE and into the new term agreements, resulting in revenues of $18 million. Ur Energy is now better placed as it has seven agreements that call for combined annual delivery of a base amount of 440,000-1,300,000 pounds of uranium from 2025 through 2030, with additional deliveries of 100,000 called for in 2032 and 2033.

CCJ’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates

So far this year, Cameco shares have gained 50% compared with the industry’s 18.7% growth. Meanwhile, the broader Zacks Basic Materials sector has moved up 12.4%, while the S&P 500 has climbed 6.6%.

CCJ stock is trading at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 12.87 compared with the industry’s 1.24. It is above its five-year median of 6.58.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Cameco’s earnings for fiscal 2025 indicates year-over-year growth of 120.4%. The same for 2026 implies growth of 49.6%. 

The consensus estimate for Cameco’s earnings for fiscal 2025 has moved up over the past 60 days while the estimate for 2026 has moved down, as shown in the chart below.

The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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