What's in the Cards for Unum Group This Earnings Season?

Unum Group UNM is slated to report second-quarter 2025 earnings on July 29, after market close. The insurer’s earnings beat estimates in two of the last four reported quarters and missed in the other two.

Unum Group is expected to register an improvement in both its top and bottom lines this time around.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for UNM’s first-quarter revenues is pegged at $3.32 billion, indicating 2.4% growth from the year-ago reported figure.

The consensus estimate for earnings is pegged at $2.23 per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for UNM’s first-quarter earnings has moved down 8 cents in the past 30 days. The estimate suggests a year-over-year increase of 3.2%.

What the Zacks Model Unveils for UNM

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Unum Group this time around. This is because a stock needs to have the right combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold). This is not the case, as you can see below:

Earnings ESP: UNM has an Earnings ESP of -0.79% at present. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate of $2.21 is pegged lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.23. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Unum Group Price and EPS Surprise

Unum Group price-eps-surprise | Unum Group Quote

Zacks Rank: UNM currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Factors Likely to Shape Q2 Results of UNM

Favorable persistency and better sales in the operating segments are likely to have favored premiums in the second quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for premium income is pegged at $2.7 billion. We expect premium income to be $2.7 billion, suggesting a 3% increase from the year-ago quarter.

Higher miscellaneous investment income and an increase in the level of invested assets are likely to have supported higher net investment income. Our estimate is pegged at $543.7 million. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $524 million. 

The performance of Unum U.S. and Colonial Life, two of the largest operating segments, is likely to have been driven by higher premium income, favorable persistency, improved benefit experience in the life and accident, sickness, and disability product lines, favorable recoveries in the long-term disability product line, and enhanced stop loss experience. 

Better performance in life and group disability is likely to aid Unum US results. 

Our estimate for Unum US operating revenues is pegged at $2 billion, while the same for Colonial Life is $501 million.

Unum International is expected to have benefited from the expansion of its in-force block, favorable recoveries in its group long-term disability product line, higher premium income, improved benefits experience, and increased sales and persistency across both Unum International and Unum UK. Our estimate for Unum International’s operating revenues is pegged at $290.2 million.

Expenses are likely to have increased because of higher policy benefits, commissions, interest, and debt expense, amortization of deferred acquisition costs, and other expenses. We expect total benefits and expenses to be $2.8 billion.

Continued share buybacks are likely to have contributed to a boost in the bottom line.

Stocks to Consider

Some insurance stocks with the right combination of elements to deliver an earnings beat this time around are:

Root, Inc. ROOT has an Earnings ESP of +58.29% and sports a Zacks Rank #1 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $1.06, indicating a year-over-year increase of 303.8%. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

ROOT’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.

Palomar Holdings, Inc. PLMR has an Earnings ESP of +0.25% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter 2025 earnings is $1.68, representing a 34.4% year-over-year increase. 

PLMR’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.

NMI Holdings Inc. NMIH has an Earnings ESP of +0.93% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $1.16, indicating a year-over-year decrease of 3.3%. 

NMIH’s earnings beat estimates in three of the last four reported quarters and missed in one.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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