HMY's FY25 Output Target in Sight Despite 9M Dip: Can It Deliver?

Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. HMY remains confident in achieving its full-year fiscal 2025 production guidance, even though gold output declined year over year in the first nine months. The company produced roughly 1.11 million ounces during this period, down 6% from 1.18 million ounces a year ago, largely due to interruptions from unprecedented rainfall in South Africa, which impacted electricity supply to its West Wits operations. This impacted production from Mponeng, Doornkop and Kusasalethu operations. 

Nevertheless, Harmony expects to meet its production guidance of 1.4-1.5 million ounces of gold for fiscal 2025, banking on a stronger final quarter and improved performance at its high-grade Mponeng and Moab Khotsong assets. It raised its underground recovered grade guidance to 6.00g/t from 5.80g/t, driven by strong performances from Mponeng and Moab Khotsong, and now expects to attain above that revised target. The company’s continued investment in mine-life extension and asset optimization underscores its push for a strong finish to fiscal 2025. 

Among its peers, AngloGold Ashanti plc AU saw a 22% year-over-year surge in gold production to 720,000 ounces in first-quarter 2025. This was its strongest first-quarter production since the first quarter of 2020. The upside was driven by a strong performance from AngloGold Ashanti’s managed operations with solid gains at Siguiri, Cerro Vanguardia and the Australian operations. AngloGold Ashanti expects consolidated gold production between 2.900 million ounces and 3.225 million ounces for 2025.

Gold Fields Limited GFI had a strong start to 2025 with attributable equivalent gold production climbing roughly 19% year over year to 551,000 ounces in the first quarter. Gold Fields remains on track to meet its production guidance for 2025. Gold Fields sees attributable gold equivalent production of between 2.25-2.45 million ounces for the full year.

HMY’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates

Shares of Harmony Gold have rallied 68.9% year to date against the Zacks Mining – Gold industry’s rise of 58.7%, thanks to a surge in gold prices.

From a valuation standpoint, HMY is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 4.87, a roughly 61.7% discount to the industry average of 12.72X. It carries a Value Score of B.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HMY’s fiscal 2025 earnings implies a year-over-year rise of 190.8%. The EPS estimates for fiscal 2025 have been trending higher over the past 60 days.

HMY stock currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). 

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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