3 Reasons to Sell CAG and 1 Stock to Buy Instead

Shareholders of Conagra would probably like to forget the past six months even happened. The stock dropped 26.1% and now trades at $19.43. This was partly due to its softer quarterly results and might have investors contemplating their next move.

Is there a buying opportunity in Conagra, or does it present a risk to your portfolio? Get the full stock story straight from our expert analysts, it’s free.

Why Do We Think Conagra Will Underperform?

Despite the more favorable entry price, we don't have much confidence in Conagra. Here are three reasons why we avoid CAG and a stock we'd rather own.

1. Demand Slipping as Sales Volumes Decline

Revenue growth can be broken down into changes in price and volume (the number of units sold). While both are important, volume is the lifeblood of a successful staples business as there’s a ceiling to what consumers will pay for everyday goods; they can always trade down to non-branded products if the branded versions are too expensive.

Conagra’s average quarterly sales volumes have shrunk by 2.5% over the last two years. This decrease isn’t ideal because the quantity demanded for consumer staples products is typically stable.

2. Revenue Projections Show Stormy Skies Ahead

Forecasted revenues by Wall Street analysts signal a company’s potential. Predictions may not always be accurate, but accelerating growth typically boosts valuation multiples and stock prices while slowing growth does the opposite.

Over the next 12 months, sell-side analysts expect Conagra’s revenue to drop by 3.5%, a decrease from This projection doesn't excite us and indicates its products will face some demand challenges.

3. Previous Growth Initiatives Haven’t Impressed

Growth gives us insight into a company’s long-term potential, but how capital-efficient was that growth? A company’s ROIC explains this by showing how much operating profit it makes compared to the money it has raised (debt and equity).

Conagra historically did a mediocre job investing in profitable growth initiatives. Its five-year average ROIC was 5.4%, somewhat low compared to the best consumer staples companies that consistently pump out 20%+.

Final Judgment

We cheer for all companies serving everyday consumers, but in the case of Conagra, we’ll be cheering from the sidelines. Following the recent decline, the stock trades at 7.9× forward P/E (or $19.43 per share). While this valuation is optically cheap, the potential downside is huge given its shaky fundamentals. There are more exciting stocks to buy at the moment. We’d suggest looking at the most dominant software business in the world.

Stocks We Would Buy Instead of Conagra

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