Should Palantir Stock Be in Your Portfolio Before Q2 Earnings?

Palantir Technologies Inc. PLTR will report its second-quarter 2025 results on Aug. 4, after the bell.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in the to-be-reported quarter stands at 14 cents, indicating 55.6% growth from the year-ago reported quarter. The consensus estimate for total revenues stands at $938.3 million, indicating 38.4% year-over-year growth. There has been no change in analyst estimates or revisions lately.

The company has a strong history of earnings surprises. Earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and matched once, with an earnings surprise of 12.7%, on average.

PLTR’s Lesser Chance of Q2 Earnings Beat

Our proven model doesn’t conclusively predict an earnings beat for PLTR this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

PLTR has an Earnings ESP of 0.72% and a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

PLTR’s All-Round Healthy Business Should be the Driver in Q2

We expect a significant year-over-year improvement in the company’s top line in the to-be-reported quarter, driven by healthy business from existing as well as new customers, strengthening both the Government and Commercial segments.

The consensus estimate for Government revenues is pegged at $510.5 million, indicating 37.7% year-over-year growth. The consensus mark for Commercial revenues is pegged at $429.3 million, indicating 39.7% year-over-year growth.

PLTR Stock Looking Pricey

Palantir shares have surged a whopping 107% year to date. This performance has significantly outpaced the 18% growth of its industry. Interest in this prominent AI-focused stock remains strong as investors seek opportunities to capitalize on the AI trend.

At this moment, it is worth noting that at its current valuation, Palantir is looking pricey. Based on training 12-month EV-to-EBITDA, PLTR is currently trading at 2103.6X, way above the industry’s 15.29X. If we look at the forward 12-month Price/Earnings ratio, the company’s shares are currently trading at 234.86X forward earnings, well above the industry’s 40.36X.

Investment Considerations

Although PLTR is expected to report year-over-year growth in second-quarter earnings and revenues, its stock looks overvalued compared to industry peers. Recent analyst trends also point to cautious sentiment around the stock. While PLTR’s government and commercial businesses remain strong, its high valuation leaves little room for error. Given the stock’s sharp rally this year and stretched pricing, there is an increased risk of a pullback if expectations are not met. Investors may find it prudent to sell PLTR at current levels and protect gains amid potential volatility.

As PLTR’s valuation moves higher, Lockheed Martin LMT and RTX Corporation RTX offer more grounded defense exposure. Lockheed Martin, with its massive defense contracts, provides steady cash flow and less volatility than PLTR. Its forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio is below 16X, and trailing 12-month EV-to-EBITDA is below 12X. Lockheed Martin continues to benefit from global rearmament while trading at modest earnings multiples.

Similarly, RTX shines through missile systems. RTX’s defense backlog, like LMT's, underscores its stability. Its forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio is below 25X, and trailing 12-month EV-to-EBITDA is just below 18X.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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