Two factors often determine stock prices in the long run: earnings and interest rates. Investors can't control the latter, but they can focus on a company's earnings results every quarter.
The earnings figure itself is key, of course, but a beat or miss on the bottom line can sometimes be just as, if not more, important. Therefore, investors should consider paying close attention to these earnings surprises, as a big beat can help a stock climb and vice versa.
The ability to identify stocks that are likely to top quarterly earnings expectations can be profitable, but it's no simple task. Here at Zacks, our Earnings ESP filter helps make things easier.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained
The Zacks Earnings ESP is more formally known as the Expected Surprise Prediction, and it aims to grab the inside track on the latest analyst estimate revisions ahead of a company's report. The idea is relatively intuitive as a newer projection might be based on more complete information.
With this in mind, the Expected Surprise Prediction compares the Most Accurate Estimate (being the most recent) against the overall Zacks Consensus Estimate. The percentage difference provides the ESP figure. The system also utilizes our core Zacks Rank to provide a stronger system for identifying stocks that might beat their next quarterly earnings estimate and possibly see the stock price climb.
In fact, when we combined a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better and a positive Earnings ESP, stocks produced a positive surprise 70% of the time. Perhaps most importantly, using these parameters has helped produce 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Stocks with a #3 (Hold) ranking, which is most stocks covered at 60%, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. But stocks that fall into the #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) ranking, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market. Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.
Should You Consider B2Gold?
The final step today is to look at a stock that meets our ESP qualifications. B2Gold (BTG) earns a #3 (Hold) six days from its next quarterly earnings release on August 7, 2025, and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $0.15 a share.
BTG has an Earnings ESP figure of +25.68%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $0.15 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.12. B2Gold is one of a large database of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
BTG is one of just a large database of Basic Materials stocks with positive ESPs. Another solid-looking stock is Freeport-McMoRan (FCX).
Freeport-McMoRan is a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock, and is getting ready to report earnings on October 28, 2025. FCX's Most Accurate Estimate sits at $0.60 a share 88 days from its next earnings release.
Freeport-McMoRan's Earnings ESP figure currently stands at +4.45% after taking the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.57.
BTG and FCX's positive ESP metrics may signal that a positive earnings surprise for both stocks is on the horizon.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
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B2Gold Corp (BTG): Free Stock Analysis Report Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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