Marriott to Report Q2 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

Marriott International, Inc. MAR is scheduled to report second-quarter 2025 results on Aug. 5, before the opening bell.

MAR’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on one occasion, the average surprise being 0.9%.

Trend in the Estimate Revision of MAR

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter earnings per share (EPS) is pegged at $2.64, indicating growth of 5.6% from $2.50 reported in the year-ago quarter.

For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at nearly $6.7 billion. The metric suggests a rise of 3.5% from the year-ago quarter’s figure.

Marriott International, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Marriott International, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Marriott International, Inc. Quote

Factors Likely to Shape Marriott’s Q2 Quarterly Results

Marriott’s second-quarter 2025 performance is likely to have benefited from sustained strength in group bookings, strong international RevPAR momentum and resilient growth in fee-based income. The company’s asset-light business model, anchored in global brand strength and expansion activity, likely underpinned revenue growth in the quarter to be reported.

Global demand fundamentals — particularly across the APAC, EMEA and CALA regions — may have bolstered RevPAR in the quarter under review. Upsides in markets such as India and Japan, alongside steady transient demand, likely supported ADR growth across higher-end chain scales.

Marriott expects second-quarter gross fee revenues to rise 3%-4% year over year, supported by steady RevPAR trends and increased co-branded credit card fees. The company expects global RevPAR to increase 1.5% to 2.5% year over year in the second quarter.

Marriott’s strategic focus on asset-light expansion and conversions likely aided second-quarter performance. Momentum in global signings, alongside anticipated contributions from the citizenM acquisition, may have helped sustain development-led fee revenue growth during the second quarter. The group travel segment also likely remained a key driver, with bookings pacing up 6% for 2025 and 7% for 2026.

Marriott projects second-quarter adjusted EBITDA to rise 3%-5% year over year, supported by broad-based international strength, disciplined cost control and sustained development momentum.

Macro & Cost Pressures Ail MAR

Persistent softness in the U.S. and Canada region — particularly tied to government-related travel and select-service demand — likely weighed on domestic RevPAR trends in the second quarter. Cautious transient demand in lower-tier leisure segments, compounded by calendar shifts such as Easter timing, may have also moderated growth in key domestic markets.

Marriott may have experienced moderate pressure on incentive management fees due to renovation activity at select owned and leased properties, primarily in North America. Residential branding fees are expected to decline 60% year over year due to timing factors. Our model predicts revenues from incentive management fees to fall 2.5% year over year to $190.2 million.

Cost inflation and FX volatility may have posed challenges in the second quarter, particularly in managing international operations and funding expansion efforts. Our model predicts total expenses in the second quarter to rise 5.4% year over year to $5.5 billion.

What Our Model Says About MAR Stock

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Marriott this time. A stock needs to have a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) to beat earnings. However, that is not the case here.

Earnings ESP for MAR: Marriott has an Earnings ESP of +3.81%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Marriott’s Zacks Rank: The company has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

Stocks Poised to Beat on Earnings

Here are some stocks from the Zacks Consumer Discretionary sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat.

Carnival Corporation & plc CCL currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.40% and a Zacks Rank of 1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

In the to-be-reported quarter, Carnival’s earnings are expected to increase 3.2%. Carnival’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 169.9%.

PENN Entertainment, Inc. PENN currently has an Earnings ESP of +23.32% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

PENN Entertainment’s earnings for the to-be-reported quarter are expected to increase 77.8%. PENN reported better-than-expected earnings in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on one occasion, the average surprise being 13.5%.

Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. LYV currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.19% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

In the to-be-reported quarter, Live Nation’s earnings are expected to remain flat year over year. Live Nation’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 40.8%.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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