Banco BBVA Argentina S.A. (BBAR): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Banco BBVA Argentina S.A. on Jeremie Boyer’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on BBAR. Banco BBVA Argentina S.A.'s share was trading at $16.36 as of July 30^th. BBAR’s trailing P/E was 11.24 according to Yahoo Finance.

Argentina, long plagued by boom-bust cycles, may now be entering a period of macroeconomic normalization between 2025–27. With sovereign spreads potentially compressing by over 500 basis points within 18 months, banks emerge as the most direct equity beneficiaries due to their sensitivity to interest rates and operating leverage. As policy rates decline faster than deposit rates adjust, banks immediately monetize net interest margin (NIM) expansion.

Their cost structures—primarily peso-denominated—combined with inflation-linked revenue, provide powerful operating leverage. Current price-to-book (P/B) valuations already embed extreme earnings pessimism, implying returns on equity (ROE) well below the cost of equity (COE), suggesting material upside if macro conditions stabilize.

Within this setup, Banco BBVA Argentina (BBAR) stands out. Even after assuming a 120 bp NIM haircut to reflect easing rate expectations, BBAR’s fundamental outlook remains compelling. It benefits from structurally cheap funding, with 63% of deposits in non-interest-bearing sight accounts. Its digital scale, with 63% of transactions via mobile, supports an ambitious cost-to-income ratio target below 50% by 2027.

BBAR also leads in credit quality with a 1.8% non-performing loan ratio and 140% coverage—the best among peers. Its NIM shows resilience, declining by just ~40 bp for every 100 bp policy rate cut due to lagged deposit repricing. A sustainable 17% ROE (up from 16%) against a 24% COE underpins a 2.0× P/B valuation, implying a price range of $18–22 per ADR. With macro tailwinds aligning, BBAR offers high-conviction equity convexity to Argentina’s potential macro rerating.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Bancolombia S.A. (CIB) by Unemployed Value Degen in January 2025, which highlighted its dominant market share, digital bank Nequi, and potential for a valuation rerating. The company’s stock price has appreciated by approximately 18.51% since our coverage as the thesis began to play out. Jeremie Boyer shares a similar view but emphasizes BBAR’s stronger macro and operating leverage setup.

Banco BBVA Argentina S.A. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 13 hedge fund portfolios held BBAR at the end of the first quarter which was 12 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of BBAR as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.